How is COVID-19 controlled until a vaccine is found?

[Philosopher]

How do you think countries will try to deal with COVID-19 for the next year or two until a vaccine is found. Some suggestions I have read about are:

Complete elimination of COVID-19 through a continued lockdown until the virus is completely eliminated together with quarantining of international arrivals. New Zealand seems to be doing this, but is it only feasible for very isolated nations with small populations?

Let it rip. The complete opposite of above. Do little to control the virus’s spread. Leaders that seem to be advocating this such as Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil have been heavily criticised, but could it be that ultimately that trying to control the virus’s spread does more harm than good?

Mass testing, contact tracing and isolating of those positive, possibly aided by a contact tracing app. This seems to have worked in some Asian countries.

Continued social distancing but at a somewhat lower level than what places are doing presently. If so, how much social distancing will be necessary for this to work?

Cycles with minimal social distancing followed by lockdowns when a new wave starts.

I am guessing a mixture of the above will be used in most countries, but what combinations?

[elaine567]

In the UK we are letting it rip essentially as it was far too late before anything was done.  We knew about the nightmare in Italy but we did nothing for weeks.
Boris prevaricated and didn't take it seriously. He squandered any potential advantage we had.
There is no choice now. It is a damage control exercise basically, making sure the NHS is not completely overwhelmed.
Now there is a PPE shortage up and down the country, there is grossly inadequate testing and the virus is running wild in care homes and in all essential staff.
66 million people who mainly live on a postage stamp, what do you expect?

We are in a "soft" lockdown and the 7 day self isolation rules are inadequate IMO. 15000 people a day are still coming into the country untested and unmonitored by plane... 
We are told curves are "flattening" but without tests, deaths in the community being unrecorded and covered up, some people being dissuaded from going to hospital and some being persuaded to sign DNR forms, how can they possibly know?
Every day we are bombarded with "How do we lift the lock down" by the media, but how can they do that with 800-900 hospital deaths a day?  We are the worst affected country in Europe per capita...
Yes the dead are mainly elderly or sick and unhealthy but there are kids, the young, the middle-aged, the pregnant, the healthy and fit dead too from this virus.

The Govt. are supposedly doing all they can, but the "incompetence" is astounding.
We need disciplined professional "organisers" taking control, dealing with this, not soft "career politicians"  but maybe that suits the agenda.
In reality, my guess, "herd immunity by stealth".
Now I hear they are all waiting for Boris to make a reappearance from his sick bed to tell them what to do...smh 
 

Edited April 18, 2020 by elaine567

[chillii]

Or like Sweden , that's gonna be interesting but at the same time the world has a free guinea pig right there on the letting it rip method. Oddly , according to one chart on the 17th Sweden cases are actually slowing. But l guess in the opposite too in the way some others are winning atm .

Personally l think most will try to stamp it out bit by bit with lock downs and isolation , testings , l think that's possible and seems to be working for some that jumped on it quick enough. And later on as they open up again hopefully they'll be able to isolate and stamp out any new little outbreaks . lt's gonna mean yet another whole new form of security at airports and docks though isn't it when a country that is clean opens up internationally again, until there's a vac.

Edited April 18, 2020 by chillii

[Inflikted]

Not that it means much, since I don't consider myself very "intelligent" about these kinds of things, but my personal prediction for those of us in the US is that we'll have waves of "Return to life, but with social distancing practices", then spikes in outbreaks that lead to shutdowns again, and rinse and repeat until vaccine. Perhaps if some good treatment can become available within the next six months, we can avoid those "on and off" periods, but I'm not sure how likely that is.

I do think certain businesses and industries will probably not be able to get back to normal until there's a vaccine. Like, I don't think bars will really be able to reopen, I think restaurants and fast food places will need to continue being mainly takeout and delivery, I don't think we'll be seeing concerts or sporting events until deep into 2021 if not later.

[chillii]

Actually you probably called it about right for you guys inflikted

Edited April 18, 2020 by chillii

[BaileyB]

Life as we knew it is pretty much over until we get a vaccine... I am hopeful that we will have periods of time with less disease activity, such that we can hopefully visit family again and most business can reopen - whether they will be able to survive long enough to actually reopen is another story. I expect that we will have periods of shutdown as we move through different waves... what this will mean for schools and workplaces, is almost too much to wrap my brain around. The travel and tourism industries... completely shut down. I don’t see sporting events, festivals, concerts, or any other mass gathering happening for years to come... It’s a sad new reality, overwhelming at times. 

[Philosopher]

31 minutes ago, chillii said:

Or like Sweden , that's gonna be interesting but at the same time the world has a free guinea pig right there on the letting it rip method. Oddly , according to one chart on the 17th Sweden cases are actually slowing. But l guess in the opposite too in the way some others are winning atm .

Personally l think most will try to stamp it out bit by bit with lock downs and isolation , testings , l think that's possible and seems to be working for some that jumped on it quick enough. And later on as they open up again hopefully they'll be able to isolate and stamp out any new little outbreaks . lt's gonna mean yet another whole new form of security at airports and docks though isn't it when a country that is clean opens up internationally again, until there's a vac.

I have been looking at the stats a lot and Sweden does seem to be doing quite well in controlling their outbreak considering they have not ordered any lockdown, certainly better than I would have thought. Perhaps Sweden’s low population density and high number of single person households helps limits its spread there without the need for tough measures. 

I do too suspect most countries will try to control with a combination of social distancing and contact tracing plus isolation, with lockdowns being used as a last resort if an outbreak threatens to get out of control. I do suspect entertainment places will be prevented from opening until a vaccine is found. If we are lucky restaurants will be allowed to reopen at half capacity. 

[schlumpy]

A vaccine is not going to solve the problem except for those that will participate in the vaccination. Even then there a many years where the flu vaccine can be compared to wearing a warmup jacket in subzero weather with effectiveness measured as low as twenty percent.

Last year it was estimated that only fifty percent of the population in the US was vaccinated against the flu.

It's a tool but not a solution if you plan on allowing people freewill.

[elaine567]

16 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

I have been looking at the stats a lot and Sweden does seem to be doing quite well in controlling their outbreak considering they have not ordered any lockdown, certainly better than I would have thought. Perhaps Sweden’s low population density and high number of single person households helps limits its spread there without the need for tough measures. 

Yes and...

Quote

'People in Sweden have a high level of trust in government agencies. This means that a large proportion of people follow government agencies' advice,' officials say. 

'In the current situation, people in Sweden are on the whole acting responsibly to reduce the spread of infection by, for example, restricting their social contacts.

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by elaine567

[chillii]

Yeah but if they get a vac that kills it then any threats over because they could kill it with a jab.

[elaine567]

I think the majority are scared enough of this virus for there to be a high uptake of the vaccine without much persuasion, though it may be mandatory at least in the first year or so..
I don't think the general healthy population  are scared enough of flu  to rush to vaccinate, but I guess the older and frailer members who are at risk from actually dying of the flu are more enthusiastic.
BUT Covid-19 is NOT the flu., it is a far more serious threat to the human population..

[thefooloftheyear]

It would be refreshing if, for one, people started to take better care of themselves....or even talk about doing it...It's all a joke when people post up about how they are stuffing their faces and laying around....Even using more drugs and alcohol...There are so many inconsistencies and hypotheses, but one thing we do know for sure is that most people who have succumbed to this virus had many complications that were not necessarily unavoidable...Even most doctors will agree that healthy people are at a very low risk.. They may get sick, but they'll beat it...In fact,. I predict that many people have had it and beat it...and most of those people aren't being figured into the equation with this ..

Its a very tough situation....If we continue to stay the course, and continue with the closure of most of the economy, the fallout will be enormous...Entire industries won't recover or it may take years...Most small and mid sized businesses will not be able to continue if it lasts more than maybe mid summer...Will countries have a safety net for all those people?   I cant see how that's possible...

TFY

[Philosopher]

The ideal way of controlling it IMO would be if there was a COVID-19 test that was very cheap and quick to manufacture, extremely easy to use and gave a result in a few minutes. Then every morning everyone would test themselves for COVID-19. If they are positive they would have to self isolate until they are negative for two days in row, otherwise they are free to continue their day. That way COVID-19 can be controlled while allowing an almost normal life to resume. 

Unfortunately I suspect this solution is pure fantasy though as I assume it is not possible to create a test that is that cheap, easy to use and quick to manufacture.

.

Edited April 18, 2020 by Philosopher

[elaine567]

15 minutes ago, thefooloftheyear said:

Even using more drugs and alcohol...

 I don't know anything about drugs but recent study in UK looking at alcohol in the lock down showed 20% were drinking more but 33% were drinking less.

[major_merrick]

How is it controlled?  With a flamethrower. 

Need to dispose of medical waste?  🔥  Infected individuals on your doorstep?  🔥 Government trying to forcibly vaccinate you?  🔥  Are you simply bored with nothing better to do? 🔥  (There's hardly ever a bad time to cleanse your immediate area with the precise application of burning petroleum.)    ROTFL

[thefooloftheyear]

2 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

 I don't know anything about drugs but recent study in UK looking at alcohol in the lock down showed 20% were drinking more but 33% were drinking less.

They reported that sales of alcohol are up 55% over the same period last year ( in the US....)

Maybe they are using it as hand sanitizer, but I doubt it...lol

TFY

[elaine567]

1 minute ago, Philosopher said:

The ideal way of controlling it IMO would be if there was a COVID-19 test that was very cheap and quick to manufacture, extremely easy to use and gave a result in a few minutes. Then every morning everyone would test themselves for COVID-19. If they are positive they would have to self isolate until they are negative for two days in row, otherwise they are free to continue their day. That way COVID-19 can be controlled while allowing an almost normal life to resume. 

Unfortunately I suspect this solution is pure fantasy though as I assume it is not possible to create a test that is that cheap, easy to use and quick to manufacture.

In Germany if you are feeling unwell you can visit your doctor and he will do a test for corona right away.

 

3 minutes ago, thefooloftheyear said:

They reported that sales of alcohol are up 55% over the same period last year ( in the US....)

Maybe they are using it as hand sanitizer, but I doubt it...lol

TFY

Alcohol expert on TV today said that people who were drinking a lot normally were the ones whose alcohol consumption had gone through the roof during the lockdown

[OpenBook]

1 hour ago, Philosopher said:

I have been looking at the stats a lot and Sweden does seem to be doing quite well in controlling their outbreak considering they have not ordered any lockdown, certainly better than I would have thought. Perhaps Sweden’s low population density and high number of single person households helps limits its spread there without the need for tough measures.

I agree. Same reason why it was so bad in Italy - a high number of multi-generational families living in the same household there, and the Italian culture is "warm and fuzzy" anyway with lots of physical contact (hugs, handshakes, claps on the back, pinches on the cheek😀 etc.).

I think for the US it will be mass testing/contact tracing/isolating positive, along with continued encouragement of social distancing (although less restrictive than before). We won't be shaking hands with each other anytime soon. Also we'll see a lot more mask-wearing in public than before. But we've got to get our businesses opened back up before too much longer. It's not sustainable to keep everything shut down.

[Ellener]

It must be very different for many of you than it has been for me here. There isn't the same degree of negativity and pessimism anyway. 

The only practical difference here is there has been a temporary 'lockdown', which there are plans to ease at the end of April, and social distancing so people now stay six feet apart in general. For me personally that has meant no income for a month, but the government is sending me $1200. I can also claim $600 a week in benefits if necessary. Also church and other socialising has gone online.

It is way easier the city here being spread out, everywhere there are drive through banks and pharmacies, and loads of green space- can get outdoors and stay six feet apart outdoors. We have fewer cases of the virus than other large cities, and 318 deaths across Texas.

The grocery stores have been very busy as have take out from restaurants. I'm sure liquor stores have done record business...and alcoholism will be the next public health issue under scrutiny.

Reading the stats will take another couple of months to actually compare but we are now at about half the recorded world deaths of the 1957 and 1968 pandemics.

The biggest changes will be to the travel and transportation industries I imagine. Entertainment and media was already viewed largely online, and 'live performance' will become live-streaming. I think many church activities and meetings and groups will stay online as cost-effective. Working from home too for many people if they have proven it can be done productively.

The largest thing which the pandemic has shown up in the US so far has been how many people are financially vulnerable within days of loss of income; and no doubt later on another financial panic when all the medical insurance bills start arriving.

[poppyfields]

I'll probably get beat up for saying this, but imo this covid-19 crisis calls into question whether the "government" has the right to impose these restrictions and lockdowns on us, a free society, at all.

Like any other virus, say the flu for example, of which thousands die from every year even with a vaccine, it's up to each of us to take the proper steps to take care of ourselves during flu season and beyond. 

If that means wearing a face mask at certain times, so be.

So perhaps that will be the way with corona as well, as this lockdown cannot last forever, it simply can't. And a vaccine could be years away.  I've heard and read this being discussed. 

Businesses are suffering, some having to close doors permanently, folks losing jobs, unemployment is at a record high, people losing homes, and businesses going under both due to inability to pay mortgage, people out on the streets as they can no longer afford rent. 

In CA we've been locked down for one month, and although early last week for a few days it appeared the curve was flattening, numbers and deaths are way up again, so what is this lockdown doing exactly, other than destroying our economy and destroying people's lives? 

Sorry guys, just had to get that off my chest, stress level exttemely high today. 

Edited April 18, 2020 by poppyfields

[FMW]

I agree that I just don't see this lockdown being sustainable for more than another month.  The economy, jobs, and deficit spending on steroids, are already digging a hole it's going to take a long time to come out of.  

I respect the value of everyone's life.  I also respect the reality of economics and quality of life.  

I don't know what the answer is, but I don't have a problem with respectful but critical consideration of all the moving parts of this situation.  

[Redhead14]

28 minutes ago, poppyfields said:

I'll probably get beat up for saying this, but imo this covid-19 crisis calls into question whether the "government" has the right to impose these restrictions and lockdowns on us, a free society, at all.

Like any other virus, say the flu for example, of which thousands die from every year even with a vaccine, it's up to each of us to take the proper steps to take care of ourselves during flu season and beyond. 

If that means wearing a face mask at certain times, so be.

So perhaps that will be the way with corona as well, as this lockdown cannot last forever, it simply can't. And a vaccine could be years away.  I've heard and read this being discussed. 

Businesses are suffering, some having to close doors permanently, folks losing jobs, unemployment is at a record high, people losing homes, and businesses going under both due to inability to pay mortgage, people out on the streets as they can no longer afford rent. 

In CA we've been locked down for one month, and although early last week for a few days it appeared the curve was flattening, numbers and deaths are way up again, so what is this lockdown doing exactly, other than destroying our economy and destroying people's lives? 

Sorry guys, just had to get that off my chest, stress level exttemely high today. 

A lot of people just plain don't seem to understand that there is a big difference between this virus and the "regular" flu.  The regular flu doesn't require nearly the number of hospitalizations that corona does and if we hadn't done what we did do, that situation would have been so much worse than it has been.  It seems "minimal" now because what has been done was successful and could have been even more successful if everyone got on board right away .  If everyone clamped down immediately and everyone complied at the same time, we would have had this under control sooner and minimized the collateral damage we will likely experience. 

Most states/towns have a moratorium on evictions and mortgage payments are being given forebearances for most people and most people are getting unemployment plus $600 so better off than they were when they were working in a lot of cases.  In addition, power companies, internet providers, utility companies aren't shtting people off for a couple of months either.  So that argument doesn't play out that well.  Yeah, some people will be struggling, just as many people do during any time in history.  If we can get everyone on the same page, we could reduce the length of time this needs to go on.  All things considered, we are fairly lucky as China and Italy had to be on lock down for 4 months or so.  We are going to be starting to ease up sooner.  Some of that is because we are less densely populated, except for our larger cities, which will have to push on through a little longer perhaps.  But it could have been much worse for sure. 

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Redhead14

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, Redhead14 said:

it could have been much worse for sure. 

It really is horrible for some people, where whole communities are affected and many families grieving, but you are correct. Deaths globally are now at about half the number in the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. Assuming we now have control of the situation taking care of the sick and that people will continue to keep their distance and stay home as much as possible things should improve soon in the US and the stay home orders be eased off. 

[Redhead14]

1 minute ago, Ellener said:

It really is horrible for some people, where whole communities are affected and many families grieving, but you are correct. Deaths globally are now at about half the number in the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. Assuming we now have control of the situation taking care of the sick and that people will continue to keep their distance and stay home as much as possible things should improve soon in the US and the stay home orders be eased off. 

Oh, I'm not minimizing the people who have been affected.  One person gets it, the entire family is exposed, etc.  I shudder to think how many we will find later who lived alone/shut ins who passed away in their homes and we don't know it yet.  This is really ugly.  The next few months aren't going to be any picnic either, but I still feel like it could be worse and we need to keep our spirits up and keep strong so that we can think clearly and focus on how to navigate the future. 

One positive thing is that the economy was humming along pretty well before this happened, so bouncing back will be a little bit easier than if we were already in a recession and this happened. 

I did see an article today that talked about the fact that Japan was experiencing a new surge in cases and deaths.  Keep an eye on Japan, China, Italy.  See what goes on there as time goes by now.  That'll give us the heads up.  We had that heads up with this first bout, but complacency and arrogance got the best of us. 

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, Redhead14 said:

One positive thing is that the economy was humming along pretty well before this happened, so bouncing back will be a little bit easier than if we were already in a recession and this happened. 

I'm in the US and one thing has been apparent is how financially vulnerable so many people are, just one missed paycheck away from financial disaster.

At least the government recognised that and issued immediate financial support, but ongoing there needs to be more thought about health care, housing and education which have made life barely affordable for a large swathe of the population here.