The necessity of lockdowns during the pandemic

[chillii]

 

Was watching a special tonight and a virus expert professor was saying lock downs aren't really necessary and are just going to ruin economies for nothing . He said despite all the horror stories of covid droplets traveling god knows how far , the only realistic way you catch this thing is standing too close to someone that has it and them sneezing or coughing or by touching surfaces they've sneezed or coughed onto or touched with their hands afterward but even at that washing your hands thoroughly after you've been out anywhere and staying 1.5mtrs back from people is all we really need to do.

ln his opinion the lock downs will also cause more health and mental problems than the virus will in the long run with people and families being cooped up all together for long periods and we'd all be far better off continuing on with our lives and work and getting outside especially in sunshine which he says usually kills a virus anyway , but just keeping distance from other people and keeping numbers down.

Just thought it was very interesting and to me somewhat more realistic .

Edited April 12, 2020 by chillii

[elaine567]

Was he from Sweden?

[chillii]

No he wasn't English l think.

But he also said Sweden on the other hand was to the other direction extreme and were heading for disaster.

Matter of fact l checked out what Sweden was doing later just out of curiosity and in just a few wks they gone from a few 100-- to 10.500 so yeah l agree with him , seems insane to me.

ps , and they have a much higher fatality rate .

Edited April 12, 2020 by chillii

[Ellener]

Joking aside, I think it's easier in small wealthy countries with an ethos like Sweden, they do have 89 deaths per million population though as opposed to our 62.

[chillii]

2 minutes ago, Ellener said:

Joking aside, I think it's easier in small wealthy countries with an ethos like Sweden, they do have 89 deaths per million population though as opposed to our 62.

Yeah right , dunno anything about Sweden except what l was reading tonight , oh and some single chick on Ls was living there for a few years and hated it from a single womans perspective.

[elaine567]

Sweden is pretty rural with a low population density.  It may or may not have been worth the gamble. Time will tell.
It is also home to one of the biggest makers of ventilators in the world... 25% of the global market...

[chillii]

Yeah right , sounded like there was no way their hospital system was going to cope if their idea backfires , maybe they're gambling on all those ventilators .

ps , it's gonna be fascinating seeing how their situation turns out though, the way their numbers are going l'd say within the next wk they'd be crazy not to change something drastically fast.

Edited April 12, 2020 by chillii

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, chillii said:

no way their hospital system was going to cope if their idea backfires

The population of Sweden is 10 million people with a GDP of 556 billion; they'll cope. They have a different attitude to death too, from what I know (!) pragmatic and unsentimental. The high death rate there for the pandemic does not seem to panic anyone.

It's if other places decide it's a good idea it will backfire...especially super-crowded cities and maybe cultures where people don't routinely give each other personal space.

I think there's a lot of speculation still in trying to make sense of the pandemic, some of it may never be fully understood. Even 100 years later, and that particular H1N1 virus having been studied and recreated and studied some more- it's still not understood why it was so contagious and devastating. Or why some places just didn't get it except they seemed to have limitations on public gatherings and quarantines and better hygiene measures.

 

[Happy Lemming]

On my morning news (local) they have a crawl running at the bottom of the screen that says the coronavirus can travel 13 feet away from an individual. 

Does that mean we should be keeping a 13 foot buffer, now (instead of 6 feet)??

Also, there was something about the virus being tracked into your home via the shoes you wear.  Time to pick an old pair of shoes to leave outside of the house and spray with bleach / water solution.

[carhill]

FWIW, as a control, no PPE in use, been accepting packages and eating what's inside the food ones as usual without additional treatment, washing hands as usual (where I live and work, dirt and grease are normal so I wash a lot anyway), only change is homemade hand sanitizer in the truck (alcohol and aloe gel). Still vertical. Target age group, over 60. Number of reported -19 cases in county, 14 as of this morning, no deaths. 

[Redhead14]

19 minutes ago, Happy Lemming said:

On my morning news (local) they have a crawl running at the bottom of the screen that says the coronavirus can travel 13 feet away from an individual. 

Does that mean we should be keeping a 13 foot buffer, now (instead of 6 feet)??

Also, there was something about the virus being tracked into your home via the shoes you wear.  Time to pick an old pair of shoes to leave outside of the house and spray with bleach / water solution.

I don't think that's the case since the existing distancing and containment guidelines and practices are working.  Yes, I think it's a good idea at the very least sanitize your shoes before bringing them in and/or leave them outside just as you should be sanitizing anything that you bring into the house.  A rubbermaid tub with a lid works good for leaving shoes outside.  Although, that hasn't been part of the push in terms of protocols.  Wash your hands often and stay away from people by at least 6 feet is working so I don't see the need to go too far over what's been suggested.  It's impossible to do things that completely eliminate the risk I'd say and what's been recommended seems to be enough or else we'd still having rising cases and deaths and really getting even more out of control. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by Redhead14

[Redhead14]

On 4/12/2020 at 8:43 AM, chillii said:

 

even at that washing your hands thoroughly after you've been out anywhere and staying 1.5mtrs back from people is all we really need to do.

 

The problem is that there are a lot of people who are not, will not, would not observe those guidelines.  We're seeing it everyday even now . . .

[Gaeta]

On 4/12/2020 at 8:43 AM, chillii said:

 standing too close to someone that has it and them sneezing or coughing or by touching surfaces they've sneezed or coughed onto or touched with their hands afterward but even at that washing your hands thoroughly after you've been out anywhere and staying 1.5mtrs back from people is all we really need to do.

All that is hard to do properly when you're willing to give your 100% so imagine those you come across in a day who aren't willing and ready.

Where I am from majority of people observe authorities recommendations, still, the day I need to go grocery shopping it's really hard to stay 6 feet away from everyone. There is always a couple of times you end up squeezed in a corner with someone else. Then don't touch any surfaces and don't touch your face....we all want to avoid it but I am sure all of us touched our face at some point by accident! Also  you can trust your own willingness to observe the rules but what about the others around you? You cannot control an idiot sneezing on you.

So, we all better staying home. There is no way we can make this social distancing perfect. 

[elaine567]

4 minutes ago, Gaeta said:

So, we all better staying home. There is no way we can make this social distancing perfect

Agreed.
That is why the main advice is to stay at home. There are too many variables you have no control over when you leave home.
Some are determined to "get around" the advice by going out and effectively "rebelling" even if it is just in a small way to make themselves feel better.

[chillii]

 

Dunno how this thread appeared l didn't do it but at any rate l personally agree with lock downs l just don't see how else they could contain it so l wasn't saying l don't , just talking about what this guy said really. l mean though l suppose in ways he could be right too except that not everyone would do the right things so it would still just take off.

lt's all just mind boggling though really isn't it , and pretty sad obviously from the illness and what people are going through, losses of lives , but also in businesses that'll be lost , jobs and economies , wouldn't really believe it in this day and age really would you. One country or city or something maybe but across the world , blows your mind.

 

[chillii]

Just checked out Swedens chart , their curve ain't flattening that is for sure that lines still just heading straight up right now.

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, chillii said:

Just checked out Swedens chart , their curve ain't flattening that is for sure that lines still just heading straight up right now.

With a way smaller population and robust health system they can 'play' with their 'risk assessment' and deal with the fallout. In the massive US and especially in over-crowded places, we can't have the same approach.

[preraph]

Yeah, I agree.  If you're not packed in like sardines, you're much safer.  There's lots of places out in the country here in just about any state except east and west coast states that the country people are pretty safe.  And they'll be the first to get it relaxed, but I keep hearing it is up to the governors, which is fine, but I think it needs to be by area, not by the whole state.  For example, cities of fewer than population 10,000 or something like that.  But they have to continue to prohibit travel.  So far, it's travel that has caused the most outbreaks.  

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, preraph said:

If you're not packed in like sardines, you're much safer.  

I think that's why we're doing okay so far here, the city is so spread out,  already has drive-through-everything. Plus we are so used to dealing with disasters. People are very capable and reslient and they help and encourage each other automatically now. 

[chillii]

Yeah for sure and l sure don't wanna crow about it but that is one thing about where l am we're 3 hours from the capital there's plenty of space and with the lockdowns there's no millions of tourists coming through anymore. So so far we've had 4 cases up in our main small city here but they tracked those and blocked it , some guy came back from os. But apart from that our area itself hasn't had any cases at all as yet within a 50k radius thk god and we wanna keep the flood gates closed and keep it that way too if at all possible.

[preraph]

You are ahead of the game having been through the hurricane, but I wish you weren't getting this double whammy and still things up in the air from the other disaster.  I felt a little ahead of the game only because my parents told me stories about the Great Depression and rationing and shortages on everything.  And then same thing with WWII.  I remember one of my aunts wouldn't throw away anything like a plastic container because she said you never know what you'll need in a big disaster.  I can kind of see it her way too.  Not sure why you'd need little plastic containers, but sure could use some huge ones to dump dry goods into.  

[Ellener]

That's good @chillii 

If I were a Fauci I'd advise people stick to the social distancing and stay-home-when-sick and handwashing measures etc and that the return to normal is slowly phased in related to number of outstanding cases and available hospital beds so any smaller re-occurances can be managed.

 

[SumGuy]

On 4/13/2020 at 11:01 AM, Happy Lemming said:

On my morning news (local) they have a crawl running at the bottom of the screen that says the coronavirus can travel 13 feet away from an individual. 

Does that mean we should be keeping a 13 foot buffer, now (instead of 6 feet)??

Also, there was something about the virus being tracked into your home via the shoes you wear.  Time to pick an old pair of shoes to leave outside of the house and spray with bleach / water solution.

It's all about probabilities.  I'm not certain if microdroplet concentration will fall off as the square or cube of the difference or less (I'm guessing square for sneezes and cube for just ambient), and how many viral particles it really takes to have a high probability of infecting you.  We all have an innate sense from normal flu but if you look at the reproductive order (R0) on this thing is is like 4-9 times more contagious (I'm squaring the R0 difference as it is non-linear).

Knowing epidemiologists, there is a bit of psychology that goes in to it, ask for too much and you get no compliance and there are always those who will not voluntarily comply no matter what (especially if they are encouraged to minimize the risk).   I think the 6 feet is based on the former, it is twice the old distance, but 12 feet is certainly better than 6.  The lock down is more an attempt to reign in those who won't comply with much of anything.

On shoes, I always leave them at the door anyway.  It's the farm thing, which was certainly about mud but also disease as you track through all sorts of stuff.

 

I believe a lot of it can be chalked up to we don't have nearly enough information about actual numbers of infected in the US to make more nuanced policies.   That and lock downs do work per South Korea, they can work well without heavily disrupting your economy if done early...the longer you wait the longer they will need to be to be effective.

All of this can be addressed by testing, the creation and production of tests should have been a first priority way back when.  With enough tests (like South Korea) you can get a real handle on it, where it is and more importantly who does or does not have it.  Knowledge, facts, allow you to make informed decisions.  With that information you would not need to lockdown everything, and could rationally open portions where the risk are low.  Basing it off of confirmed cases when only those clearly ill get a test, with no random testing to get an idea of the pool of asymptomatic carries, is pure guess work and a recipe for more cases.

Just an anecdote to illustrate under reporting.  Know through friends at least 4 twenty somethings in NYC who have all the symptoms, even the loss of smell.  They are self quarantining, and for 17 days after last symptoms (except for the smell loss thing); pretty damn responsible kids (they are also forming closed social circles).  None of them have been tested, so none of them show up in the statistics, and they clearly have it.

 

 

[chillii]

Yeah of course that's the thing and so they are best to lock down imo , to top it off the percentage that won't do it are probably the fkrs that end up with it so they'll be the spreaders in the end anyway, if they didn't lockdown.

Edited April 15, 2020 by chillii

[preraph]

Oh, yeah, no way to get accurate numbers and wish people wouldn't fingerpoint about it.  Can't risk the sick to stop and use supplies and personnel to test the well.