elaine567 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 No-one but no-one wants to be stuck in isolation without toilet paper. Some will be the "4 rolls a shop" people and they know that is not going to last for weeks, so they feel the need to stock up. I guess the usual "50+ rolls in the garage" folk will also feel the need to up their stock too, just in case... Biggest toilet roll manufacturer in UK was on TV, he said they have oodles in stock and are producing millions of them so there is no need to hoard, they are never going to run out. They have most things in my supermarket including toilet tissue, but no delivery slots for online for weeks, and that is before the new policy of the old and infirm locking themselves away... I am not sure how the disabled/housebound who usually rely on online delivery slots are going to feed themselves. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Cookiesandough Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) 55 minutes ago, introverted1 said: The fatality rate for a car accident is 1.13 per 100 million miles driven. The fatality rate on covid-19 is much, much higher. I'm not an advocate of panic, and I have no idea why people are hoarding toilet paper, of all things, but this virus does have the potential to overwhelm our health care system and force doctors to make difficult decisions about who to treat. We don’t have the numbers on the infection rate + the fatality rate combined to say. The numbers we have so far are that almost 40,000 people die each year from car accidents in the USA and so far around this year 32 people have died of coronavirus, most of which are highly immunocompromised people. So far this year, Germany has around 3,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 6 deaths due to it and influenza has seen 120,000 cases, 2000 people in hospitals, and around 200 deaths. Not saying to not continue to wash your hands or be careful around people with higher mortality risk, but seriously, if people with were remotely as vigilant about things that haven’t been as hyped up as this. Things that could potentially be much more dangerous.That’s an impractical way to live, though. The biggest concern would be not if most people get it or not, but the potential it could overwhelm the our medical system if too many got it around the same time. We should always be cautious around elderly and immunocompromised people. We could always spread something potentially deadly to them, even if when they weather warms up and the cases of COVID-19 go down. Yea, the panic is absurd but panic by is by definition absurd. Edited March 15, 2020 by Cookiesandough 1 Link to post Share on other sites
simpycurious Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 32 minutes ago, Cookiesandough said: We don’t have the numbers on the infection rate + the fatality rate combined to say. The numbers we have so far are that almost 40,000 people die each year from car accidents in the USA and so far around this year 32 people have died of coronavirus, most of which are highly immunocompromised people. So far this year, Germany has around 3,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus and 6 deaths due to it and influenza has seen 120,000 cases, 2000 people in hospitals, and around 200 deaths. Not saying to not continue to wash your hands or be careful around people with higher mortality risk, but seriously, if people with were remotely as vigilant about things that haven’t been as hyped up as this. Things that could potentially be much more dangerous.That’s an impractical way to live, though. The biggest concern would be not if most people get it or not, but the potential it could overwhelm the our medical system if too many got it around the same time. We should always be cautious around elderly and immunocompromised people. We could always spread something potentially deadly to them, even if when they weather warms up and the cases of COVID-19 go down. Yea, the panic is absurd but panic by is by definition absurd. I am with Cookie on this. I am not going to alter my way of life other than being more diligent about washing my hands not traveling abroad this spring or summer. I will probably spend more time at the beach or something like that but I don't want to let my life be dominated by fear. I think what Ms Cookie says about it being an "impractical way to live" is spot on. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Cookiesandough Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 I want to spend a lot of time at the beach as well ! And also practice climbing/trekking. And dating. . I look forward to this summer 😊 Link to post Share on other sites
simpycurious Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, Cookiesandough said: I want to spend a lot of time at the beach as well ! And also practice climbing/trekking. And dating. . I look forward to this summer 😊 Climbing and trekking are both fun as is enjoying the beach. There's nothing quite like the magic of the oceans. I hope people will not "shelter in place" and enjoy this beautiful world. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Gr8fuln2020 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) I keep hearing people saying things like...'it's only the immuno-compromised', 'the fatality rate is not as great as car accidents,' 'it's not as dangerous as the flu,' or 'there are only # cases,' etc. Everyone is responsible for helping combat this pandemic. The word pandemic is scary for people, but it simply means this virus had made its presence world-wide and does not speak to how ugly or dangerous it is. Because we do not have a natural immunity nor a vaccine, it has the potential of infecting EVERYONE and being spread by everyone. Comparing this virus to the flu or anything else is a feel good comparison, but it does not dismiss the danger it possess to a sizable part of our community, though some may find those numbers less significant. This is not the zombie apocalypse, but we should all take this serious enough to take into consideration that our own actions could jeopardize the health and well-being of others around us. Like the flu, you wouldn't go into work or to events with large populations risking exposing others, would you? Chicken-pox? TB? And these are diseases that have vaccines, treatments... There are times when I feel that the reason why we have more people succumbing to the flu is because people are not as concerned. Now that we have a vaccine and it has been a staple of our daily lives for so long, people continue to go to work, expose others even when we know it continues to be dangerous to some of our population. There is no substantial immunity to the flu that's why we get vaccinated. This is not the case for the coronavirus. For those of you comparing the flu. Consider this. Comparing the flu and saying that it is more dangerous than the coronavirus and this while we have a vaccine, should give you some pause to why the coronavirus, for now, may be more dangerous. All I'm saying is, alter your lives enough to be considerate of your health and those around you with a little more vigilance. Go date. Go to the beach. Go on vacation. But much of the world is doing its part to slow this virus down because it needs to be. My life has changed very little since this all began. I am healthy. I spend time outdoors. Much of my work involves being somewhat isolated (ugh) anyway, I go to the store, etc. Live in fear? No. Live responsibly...in a few months or more, this may very well be just another flu-like episode... let's get to that point more safely. Edited March 15, 2020 by Gr8fuln2020 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
smackie9 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 The reason why this virus is different from the others is that it IS killing younger healthy people and they don't know why that is. They are not talking children but 30+ year olds, 40+ year olds and 50 year olds...those age groups. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
introverted1 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 2 hours ago, Cookiesandough said: We don’t have the numbers on the infection rate + the fatality rate combined to say. The numbers we have so far are that almost 40,000 people die each year from car accidents in the USA and so far around this year 32 people have died of coronavirus, most of which are highly immunocompromised people. You are comparing apples to oranges. While the exact fatality rate of covid-19 is unknown, Italy has had 12,462 confirmed cases according to the Istituto Superiore di Sanità as of March 11, and 827 deaths (source: The Lancet). That's a fatality rate of 6.66%. As for fatality affecting the immunocomprised, this is true, and exactly why we should all care about preventing transmission. Fatality is higher for those with conditions like high blood pressure (which affects 30%-47% of the US population, depending on gender and ethnicity), diabetes (10%), and lung disease (13%). Add in those over age 60 (23%) and a significant percentage of the population is at high risk. Those are the people we should be taking steps to protect. What might be a mild case for you could be very serious for someone else. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
smackie9 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 I don't know if anyone else sees this but there's an ad on this thread for medical masks LOL 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Redhead14 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) 9 hours ago, introverted1 said: As for fatality affecting the immunocomprised, this is true, and exactly why we should all care about preventing transmission. Fatality is higher for those with conditions like high blood pressure (which affects 30%-47% of the US population, depending on gender and ethnicity), diabetes (10%), and lung disease (13%). Add in those over age 60 (23%) and a significant percentage of the population is at high risk. There are millions of people walking around with "underlying" conditions that they aren't even aware of yet. Lots of people are prediabetic and very nearly near being diabetic. Lots of people have heart conditions that haven't manifested themselves clearly yet. Millions of people have undiagnosed high-blood pressure. Millions of people don't take care of themselves but are walking time bombs anyway and just need one good virus to highlight it for them. Edited March 16, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator Fix quote referral 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Erik30 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 28 minutes ago, smackie9 said: The reason why this virus is different from the others is that it IS killing younger healthy people and they don't know why that is. They are not talking children but 30+ year olds, 40+ year olds and 50 year olds...those age groups. This is true, but it's still a very small number. Most people who are infected will just have some minor complaints, or will barely even notice there's anything wrong. The problem with that is they'll just go out and unknowingly infect others... Link to post Share on other sites
Cookiesandough Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 (edited) @introverted1 Not really apples & oranges. The comparison was of two causes of death in our country. Not that there aren’t contrasts. One is being put under microscope at present and the other is not so much. One has claimed more lives thus far and (statistically, with the information we have at present) is more likely to kill us. Even if everyone in the USA contracted coronavirus and we are going by the grimmest of worldwide fatality statistics(including deaths from being quarantined without proper medical care on a cruise ship and countries with poorer health care), the risk of getting in a car today alone is only marginally less....(4% vs 2% lifetime risk) Italy’s mortality rates are so much higher because they have a higher population of elderly and therefore immunocompromised people and the air quality is no good making respiratory issues much worse. & yes what might be mild for me, can be very serious for others. That is really the whole point I was making. The flu is one of these things. 136 kids died from the flu so far this year while this has been going on and these deaths could have been avoided with the same hypervIgilance to it. If we isolate ourselves, we avoid things, but at what cost. I think the hysteria centered around this is kind of ridiculous. I respect everyone’s opinion though Edited March 15, 2020 by Cookiesandough 1 Link to post Share on other sites
introverted1 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 @Cookiesandough the lifetime risk of dying in a car accident is 1 in 572, which is .17% -- far, far less than 2% (source: Insurance Information Institute). And I would argue that car deaths have indeed been put under the microscope, which is why the death rate is so low: people pretty much routinely buckle up and cars are equipped with airbags, anti-lock brakes, lane departure warnings, and other tools to help avoid or mitigate accidents. Covid-19's fatality rate in the US isn't known yet. If there was a vaccine, as there is with flu, it would make sense to get it. I still think it's prudent to err on the side of caution. For me personally, the cost of a little boredom/isolation is minor compared to the cost of someone's life. 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
contel3 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 5 hours ago, Cookiesandough said: @introverted1 Italy’s mortality rates are so much higher because they have a higher population of elderly and therefore immunocompromised people and the air quality is no good making respiratory issues much worse. I'm not quite sure where you got the bit about the air quality from. The air quality isn't bad, especially not in the most affected region, Lombardy. It is true though that there are more elderly people. When you're talking about elderly though keep in mind that's also people in their 60s. Arguing about the mortality rate is kind of a moot point in my opinion. The biggest issue is that a lot of people need intensive care, which can not be provided if there are too many sick people at once. Which means that many people who would have survived, don't. It's also a problem because there are still other people having accidents or heart failures or any other kind of disease really - and because doctors are overwhelmed with corona patients they are not able to properly care for all of them. The reason why we want to limit the spread is not because the mortality is super high, but because many people who would survive under normal circumstances are going to die if there are not enough doctors to take care of them. 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
elaine567 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 An Italian journalist was talking today about the "elderly" Italians who are succumbing to the virus. She said that they are not generally the chronic sick "waiting to die" in nursing homes, they are fit and active independent people who biked and hiked and who looked after their grandchildren whilst their parents went to work... Lombardy is a rich region, these will be people who looked after themselves. Their only problem was the lack of ventilators to tide them over, when they got sick... 1 2 Link to post Share on other sites
Cookiesandough Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, contel3 said: I'm not quite sure where you got the bit about the air quality from. The air quality isn't bad, especially not in the most affected region, Lombardy. It is true though that there are more elderly people. When you're talking about elderly though keep in mind that's also people in their 60s. Arguing about the mortality rate is kind of a moot point in my opinion. The biggest issue is that a lot of people need intensive care, which can not be provided if there are too many sick people at once. Which means that many people who would have survived, don't. It's also a problem because there are still other people having accidents or heart failures or any other kind of disease really - and because doctors are overwhelmed with corona patients they are not able to properly care for all of them. The reason why we want to limit the spread is not because the mortality is super high, but because many people who would survive under normal circumstances are going to die if there are not enough doctors to take care of them. Italy is rated as the worst air in Europe by most sources/air quality indexes. It also had highest pollution linked deaths in the EU. The Lombardy region has been forced to improve, but Brescia and several cities location in it are the most highly polluted places in Italy. It’s a very industrialized area and pollution has declined only thanks to the shut down. We share air. The mortality rate was brought up only to illustrate a point about that absurdity of panicking over one thing and not another, instead of just taking standard precautions to prevent them and conducting life as normal. That includes the spread of it. What is moot though is arguing against something that’s not entirely rational. Edited March 16, 2020 by Cookiesandough Link to post Share on other sites
simpycurious Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 The opinions and theories on all of this is so over the top. The whole goal is stop or slow the spread so that the health care system is not overwhelmed. IMO you will see virtually everything locked down over the next weeks with the exception of "essential" elements of our society. The next couple of days should be very interesting. Link to post Share on other sites
Saracena Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 2 hours ago, elaine567 said: An Italian journalist was talking today about the "elderly" Italians who are succumbing to the virus. She said that they are not generally the chronic sick "waiting to die" in nursing homes, they are fit and active independent people who biked and hiked and who looked after their grandchildren whilst their parents went to work... Lombardy is a rich region, these will be people who looked after themselves. Their only problem was the lack of ventilators to tide them over, when they got sick... Additionally, I was listening to an Italian doctor on the radio who maintained the sole reason the virus spread so rapidly was because people were refusing to adhere to the advice to self-isolate when advised to do so. She was emphatic that to prevent this happening in other countries that lessons should be learned from the Italian experience and that social distancing was imperative in order to curb the spread and save lives etc - makes perfect sense to me. 2 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Cookiesandough Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 3 hours ago, elaine567 said: An Italian journalist was talking today about the "elderly" Italians who are succumbing to the virus. She said that they are not generally the chronic sick "waiting to die" in nursing homes, they are fit and active independent people who biked and hiked and who looked after their grandchildren whilst their parents went to work... Lombardy is a rich region, these will be people who looked after themselves. Their only problem was the lack of ventilators to tide them over, when they got sick... Doesn’t matter how well you look after yourself, if you’re 85, your immune system will just not be that strong, especially to fight a novel virus, unfortunately. Also in Italy the old and young hang out with each other a lot more closely. Or maybe I am just watching too many gangster movies 1 Link to post Share on other sites
simpycurious Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 I 1 minute ago, Cookiesandough said: Doesn’t matter how well you look after yourself, if you’re 85, your immune system will just not be that strong, especially to fight a novel virus, unfortunately. Also in Italy the old and young hang out with each other a lot more closely. Or maybe I am just watching too many gangster movies LOL...."too many gangster movies" That was a good laugh. Yep, the key is curb the spread of the virus and hopefully some of these mandates will help to that. 1 1 Link to post Share on other sites
paloma22 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 15 hours ago, elaine567 said: No-one but no-one wants to be stuck in isolation without toilet paper. Some will be the "4 rolls a shop" people and they know that is not going to last for weeks, so they feel the need to stock up. I guess the usual "50+ rolls in the garage" folk will also feel the need to up their stock too, just in case... Biggest toilet roll manufacturer in UK was on TV, he said they have oodles in stock and are producing millions of them so there is no need to hoard, they are never going to run out. They have most things in my supermarket including toilet tissue, but no delivery slots for online for weeks, and that is before the new policy of the old and infirm locking themselves away... I am not sure how the disabled/housebound who usually rely on online delivery slots are going to feed themselves. just went to my local grocery stores (x2) no toilet paper or paper towel. actually am out. boo urns. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
basil67 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Newspaper ^ Link to post Share on other sites
5x5 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 44 minutes ago, basil67 said: Newspaper ^ If only The Sydney Morning Herald wasn't a mere shadow of it's former broadsheet self. 🙂 Link to post Share on other sites
basil67 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 Yes, I miss those days of folding it into 8ths on the train. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
contel3 Posted March 16, 2020 Share Posted March 16, 2020 2 hours ago, Cookiesandough said: Doesn’t matter how well you look after yourself, if you’re 85, your immune system will just not be that strong, especially to fight a novel virus, unfortunately. Also in Italy the old and young hang out with each other a lot more closely. Or maybe I am just watching too many gangster movies 5 hours ago, Cookiesandough said: Italy is rated as the worst air in Europe by most sources/air quality indexes. Look, for some reason it seems you're trying to find reasons why things will not be the same as in italy. The statistics are probably not super accurate anyway, every country measures differently. Some only consider hospital cases, others test the whole country, others don't have enough testing kits. Age is not the only risk factor. There's high blood pressure, diabetes, asthma, smoking, being overweight….the last one could wipe out quite a large population in the US. It's not only 80 year olds. There's also middle aged people at the ER. I'm not saying you should panic, but if people don't wake up and actively try to limit the spread most of us risk spending a good part of the year in confinement. 4 hours ago, Saracena said: Additionally, I was listening to an Italian doctor on the radio who maintained the sole reason the virus spread so rapidly was because people were refusing to adhere to the advice to self-isolate when advised to do so. She was emphatic that to prevent this happening in other countries that lessons should be learned from the Italian experience and that social distancing was imperative in order to curb the spread and save lives etc - makes perfect sense to me. 100% agree!!! Other countries still have a chance to avoid the worst! Like people, don't make the same mistakes! You are lucky, use that opportunity! Link to post Share on other sites
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