The argument of citing less deaths keep popping up

July 4, 2020

I still can't figure out how some regular everyday people know so much more about the virus than pretty much everyone and that every government in the world is stupid for shutting down or taking the measures they've taken and understand what's going on better than anyone else and are suddenly omniscient and expert virologists, especially given the ever-changing information, to the point of deciding there's nothing to worry about and masks aren't necessary, etc. Erring on the side of caution where masks are concerned has very little downside.

Edited July 4, 2020 by Redhead14

July 4, 2020

11 minutes ago, Redhead14 said:

I still can't figure out how some regular everyday people know so much more about the virus than pretty much everyone and that every government in the world is stupid for shutting down or taking the measures they've taken and understand what's going on better than anyone else and are suddenly omniscient and expert virologists, especially given the ever-changing information, to the point of deciding there's nothing to worry about and masks aren't necessary, etc. Erring on the side of caution where masks are concerned has very little downside.

I have seen it's rather a commonplace online when news breaks, the initial response by some of them, 'This is nothing new, must be a slow news day!" is their go-to response. Or 'In other news, water is wet!" and so on.

July 4, 2020

The world according to Mrin:

Fact: The infection numbers are real. The spike is real

Fact: The United States has done a horrible job managing this by any objective or even subjective measure

Fact: hospitalization rates are real and reaching the breaking point in a lot of states.

Fact: there won't be a viable vaccine for quite some time

Fact: we've demonstrated that we have no self-control in controlling the spread of this disease

Fact: we are far better equipped and staffed and trained to deal with this virus now. Light years difference from April

Fact: our only real hope is to out therapeutic this virus. And there are some real success stories in treatments that give me hope. If we can continue finding effective ways to reduce the mortality then we might move this into the "really bad flu" category. If we can get to that level then we are okay

TL;DR: The United States sucks at this. The numbers are real. Our only real hope is to out treat it and there is reason to believe that's not only entirely possible but likely

Quote

Note from moderation ** items being held out as fact are only opinion**

No data has been linked in this post to support the claims as fact

Edited July 4, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator

July 4, 2020

1 hour ago, Mrin said:

The United States sucks at this.

Health care is not our thing, that's for sure. Hoping that changes, though I saw the Gilead pricing strategy for Remdesivir this week, I don't think saving lives is at the fore of motivation...

July 4, 2020

On 7/2/2020 at 8:36 AM, QuietRiot said:

Apparently, less deaths make the world of a difference.

It's silly isn't it, do the right thing, less deaths, ergo- wasn't such a big deal in the first place?

Houston did brilliantly at first but it went to our heads a bit. Now we're 'Code Red' severe threat and the hospital ICU beds are full.

July 4, 2020

On 7/3/2020 at 3:45 AM, QuietRiot said:

Well, if its any consolation, the hospitalizations are sky rocketing in some states. Esp. AZ and Florida. Not sure how that's a good thing.

Okay, say that deaths are going down. Would you like to spend time, in pain and suffering...in a hospital? That's like saying you survived a fire with 2nd and 3rd degree burns, but you spent months in the hospital in agony...but hey, at least you survived *sarcasm*

A family member is an ER doctor in California. Currently they are overfilled and they will be again ceasing elective procedures at the hospital where he practices. He is quite stressed about it, the medical community there is in crisis mode.

It's great that the death rate, so far, has not spiked right along with the infections. Not long ago, people dying from this was taken seriously. I remember very well when the death toll reached 1000 people in a day. That hit me hard. Now I am pretty complacent with 6 - 700 per day. That doesn't really mean that it's "no big deal."

We don't bother with "track and trace" much in the USA. If we did, on a national scale, it would be interesting to see the patterns that the current dramatic spikes in confirmed infections will follow. So far, the trend is that more younger people are becoming infected than older ones. These are the people who went to Memorial Day bashes, protests, bars, and megachurch events. Certainly as the infection rate continues to explode, more of these younger people will be in contact with elderly and / or infirm people. Outbreaks in those populations, who don't go out and about much, will start to flare up.

In Italy this all happened at a very fast pace because typically the older, or sicker people are still in family homes. Young people and old people spend their daily lives together much more than we do. Since care facilities in the US got aware of the devastation the virus wreaks on weaker bodies, more precautions have been taken in rehab / retirement / care homes. Once an infected person brings it in, I'm not predicting that the survival rate of these more vulnerable people will reflect a positive path.

July 4, 2020

2 hours ago, NuevoYorko said:

Since care facilities in the US got aware of the devastation the virus wreaks on weaker bodies, more precautions have been taken in rehab / retirement / care homes.

Senior people here are basically in solitary confinement where possible. No group activities, no visitors. And where they don't the infection rate and death toll is high.

In the UK disabilities advocate groups are calling for a public enquiry, stating that one third of all UK Covid deaths have been disabled people.

July 4, 2020

2 hours ago, Ellener said:

It's silly isn't it, do the right thing, less deaths, ergo- wasn't such a big deal in the first place?

Houston did brilliantly at first but it went to our heads a bit. Now we're 'Code Red' severe threat and the hospital ICU beds are full.

Yes. I know people who are calling it all a scam, when the whole point of shutting down was to save lives, and keep medical staff from being overwhelmed with patients. Now it's "It isn't that serious" and/or, "the point wasn't to save everyone, it was to keep people out of the hospitals." It's so callous.

July 4, 2020

52 minutes ago, Ellener said:

Senior people here are basically in solitary confinement where possible. No group activities, no visitors. And where they don't the infection rate and death toll is high.

That must be difficult to accomplish. Not many elderly or unhealthy people are housed in a place where solitary confinement is possible, and they often rely on care from people who come in and out of the facility on a daily basis - and, of course, have a good chance of not wearing a mask or taking any other distancing practices seriously in their lives outside of work.

In Oregon's biggest recent outbreak, in the sparsely populated Union County, was launched in a megachurch in mid May (two days after trump's announcement that he would override governors who stood in the way of all churches opening). It quickly traveled to workers in two care homes, one of which actively refused to require masks or other protocols among employees. As of June 25th, every city within that county had confirmed cases, and the first death was recorded - an elderly resident at one of the care homes. As of today, no further COVID-19 deaths have been reported in that county.

July 4, 2020

On 7/3/2020 at 8:10 AM, Art_Critic said:

It isn't just the US death toll, or State death toll...Worldwide it's going down.

source "Worldometer"

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Worldwide, they're doing better than us at stopping new infections, too. This disease has been known to seem to be on the decline, only to become worse again (in the same body). I almost lost a friend to this.

July 4, 2020

@NuevoYorko it is difficult to accomplish, people with dementia will really struggle with it all, and at the end of the day the assisted living and independent living facility residents are free to move out if it goes on forever. The workers in care homes are doing a rigorous job of temp-taking and hand-washing. I have not heard of a single case with any of my people as yet, the skilled nursing facility at one place had a few cases and all recovered.

I do tend to work at the better quality facilities, I probably wouldn't be invited back to a crappy place once I spoke to the manager about it! but there are some amazing people doing senior care work. They aren't in it for the money, it's very physically demanding work for $8-12 an hour.

It really is a case of keeping a lid on the overall Covid situation, minimising contacts and seeing people only outdoors with social distancing, handwashing and face covering for now.

We have three sources of authority for the pandemic- the county judge, the governor and the mayor. The judge did not want reopening at the rate we did and the governor over-ruled her on face-covering at first, but has since made it mandatory indoors in public. It's been an evolving situation.

July 5, 2020

We’ve done what you’re saying Enigma and it’s not nearly as dire as you are making out. While we were in lockdown, many people stayed employed by working from home. Hubby is likely to be doing six months or more working at home because he works in a skyscraper and it’s not practical to get everyone in and out when they are reliant on lifts. University isn’t cancelled, it’s also done by video. School wasnt cancelled either, again it went video. And COVID isn’t a political issue here - we are all pulling together and the government had support of the opposition when it came to locking down hard.

Due to the hard yards, we are opening up again. School is back. Restaurants are opening up. Some work places are back. We can have parties of 20 people. Dating is back on, but it’s more cautious and multi dating is best to be avoided. Yes, people can kiss a new bf/gf. To be fair, Victoria has had a surge and had to go back into lockdown around hotspots, but it seems to have been caused by poorly trained security guards monitoring quarantined returning expats.

My main concern is related to whether or not a vaccine is found. If it’s not, then the lockdowns may well have been in vain. If one is found then the lockdowns would have been worthwhile. I’m happy to have chosen saving lives in the hope of a vaccine being found.

July 5, 2020

We’ve also done well in Canada. Our numbers have dramatically declined and we have now basically reopened all services, and numbers have no really increased. People are going about their lives, going to work and enjoying many summer activities, some interprovincial travel is allowed. All is well here at the moment.

I’m going to try and post an interesting cnn piece on the different response in Canada do the US. It didn’t have to be this way in the US. There are many differences in terms of why both countries have had the outcome they have had, but this tremendous infection rate and loss of life could have been (at least somewhat) prevented.

July 5, 2020

I saw an article that stated that we are doing 6 times the amount of testing now when compared to back in April....6 times....

With more testing comes more positives...With death rates staying pretty stagnant or even going down, that's a ray of good news in light of all the gloom and doom....Yet, all a lot of people want to do is discount it, shut it off, etc...For whatever reason, the state of absolute fear and terror that they have put themselves in needs to be validated in any way possible... They don't want any good news or any sign that its not as bad as maybe originally purported to be....

Additionally, perhaps we have learned enough about it to be able to handle the cases and get people treated where they never reach levels of critical care...Again,...win...

Let's not forget about this or deny it's existence, but rather than continuing to wallow in fear, lets celebrate these small positive steps and look forward to getting back to some semblance of normalcy....As enigma stated, not that many people are content to stay home forever and post pictures on FB of the cakes and muffins they made while in their pajamas a 4pm...Many people are losing everything they worked their entire lives building, with no relief in sight...

TFY

Edited July 5, 2020 by thefooloftheyear

July 5, 2020

51 minutes ago, thefooloftheyear said:

With more testing comes more positives...

“we wouldn’t have so many darn cases of coronavirus if we weren’t doing so much testing...“ That’s like saying that we wouldn’t have a problem with teenage pregnancy if women weren’t taking so many pregnancy tests...

We’ve increased out testing capacity too, but the number of positive tests has consistently fallen (even as they’ve done asymptomatic testing to get a true sense of the activity of the virus) - such that they have actually closed testing sites this summer because the need was no longer there.

Quote

not that many people are content to stay home forever

No, but before the US can return to some kind of “normal,” it needs to get the virus under control. And to do that, the people actually have to change their behavior - lockdown, masks, social distancing. That hasn’t happened yet with any consistency.

Countries that have had a coordinated response, where the general population has followed the advice of public health and government officials, where public health and government officials have followed the science have been able to bring the situation in their countries under control. Those who have not had good leadership, a coordinated response, and the support/compliance of the general population are at the top of the leaderboard as it relates to infection rates and deaths...

Edited July 5, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator
removed political part, non political thread

July 5, 2020

29 minutes ago, BaileyB said:

“we wouldn’t have so many darn cases of coronavirus if we weren’t doing so much testing...“ That’s like saying that we wouldn’t have so many teenage mothers if they weren’t taking so many pregnancy tests...

No, but before the US can return to some kind of “normal,” it needs to get the virus under control. And to do that, the people actually have to change their behavior - lockdown, masks, social distancing. That hasn’t happened yet.

Countries that have had a Coordinated response, where the general population has followed the advice of public health and government officials, where public health and government official have followed the science have been able to bring the situation in their countries under control. Those who have not had good leadership, a coordinated response, and the support/compliance of the general population are at the top of the leaderboard as it relates to infection rates and deaths...

It's statistical facts based on numbers....Period and end of story...The more positive cases, coupled with diminishing deaths, bring the lethality of the virus wayyyyy down...They can't have this happen...so they blame..

They said from the beginning that we needed to flatten the curve...People complied and the curve was flattened...so now they do a bunch more tests and move the goalposts....again...

We can't count on government and policy makers that have nothing at all to lose to determine our fate... For a lot of people, their lives are going down the toilet...I'd love to see any policy maker give up their salary and pension, then see what type of life changing decisions that they are willing to make for everyone else in the same boat....But that will never happen...

We are now staying somewhat afloat on stimulus packages based on phony printed money...This is a recipe for enormous disaster...I predict that the economy will finally totally implode late this year....then it wont matter what happens..

TFY

Edited July 5, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator
Removed response to political statement

July 5, 2020

23 minutes ago, thefooloftheyear said:

They said from the beginning that we needed to flatten the curve...People complied and the curve was flattened...

Not sure where you get your facts. The curve has not been flattened in the majority of states. The US has recorded a record number of cases in recent days and deaths lag behind infections by a few weeks. The total number of deaths for the US is truly heartbreaking and could have been (at least in some measure) prevented.

Edited July 5, 2020 by BaileyB

July 5, 2020

21 states had no deaths yesterday according to worldometer

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I think this might be the first time I have ever seen this happen...

If there were no deaths in the beginning..say in March..would the country have been shut down ?

July 5, 2020

1 hour ago, Art_Critic said:

If there were no deaths in the beginning..say in March..would the country have been shut down ?

We have the months of acquired expertise now which will reduce the deaths. But premature reopening and being indoors together the infection numbers go up fast.

This is our situation as of now, reported in NY Times:

One of the most worrisome trends, hospital administrators said, is the increased politicization of public health measures against the virus. The hospitals in Houston are operating in a very different environment now compared with during New York’s peak in the spring, when federal, state and local leaders agreed to a national pause.

Here in Texas, political leaders have been at odds with one another, and residents sharply disagree about the danger the virus poses and what precautions are necessary. At some Houston hospitals, visitors and patients have refused to wear masks, creating conflicts with security guards at entrances.

As the Fourth of July holiday approached, Methodist spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on a public information campaign — including full-page ads wrapped around a local newspaper, social media efforts and billboards. “Stay Safe and Stay Home This July 4th,” the signs say. Methodist also sent a text message to about 10,000 patients providing safety tips. In response, the hospital system received some angry phone calls and texts. “How about you stay at home and quit telling me what to do,” was how one hospital official described them.

The economy in Texas remains open, with only bars shuttered, but Gov. Greg Abbott on Thursday issued an order requiring Texans to wear face coverings in public after long opposing such a mandate.

“There is a glimmer of some optimism,” Dr. Boom told the health system’s physicians this past week, reporting that county testing figures showed some signs of improvement.

July 5, 2020

It is baffling to me that people are using "deaths" as the only metric of whether this disease is important. Roughly 20% of people who have the virus experience severe symptoms and have complicated recoveries, including weeks and months of severe disability. So what if the majority of people survive coronavirus if you lose your job, can't pay your mortgage, and are hit with 60-80 grand in medical bills? There's still so much we don't know about the disease---it's apparently triggering diabetes in healthy people, for God's sake! The economic fallout is going to be a lot more severe if a chunk of the workforce is literally unable to work!

Every other country bar Sweden has had far, far fewer deaths proportionally than we have, but all of them decided to protect their people first and shut down. None of them said "yeah sure, we're willing to let 200, 300, 5000 people die for convenience." Shutting down isn't unique to the US. Countries that did it right and employed contact tracing/testing/accessible treatment are now on the mend, while we're worse off than ever.

Here in the US, we were told to stay home and flatten the curve for a while so we could roll out a solution like contact tracing and rapid testing. After three months the government did absolutely nothing except make a bunch of cronies and contractors rich, and rather than attempt to address the problem, they decided it was too hard and that folks are just gonna have to die.

None of this was inevitable. None of this had to happen. You can look at Germany, South Korea and New Zealand as leading the way in what a competent government should do. Those countries are getting back to normal, while US citizens are barred from travel to civilized parts of the world. We could have chosen to lead the way and protect our people, but instead we said "eh, too hard" and gave up, and decided to accept more than 130,000 deaths as the "price of freedom" or whatever. What an embarrassment of a country.

Edited July 5, 2020 by lana-banana

July 5, 2020

1 hour ago, BaileyB said:

Not sure where you get your facts. The curve has not been flattened in the majority of states. The US has recorded a record number of cases in recent days and deaths lag behind infections by a few weeks. The total number of deaths for the US is truly heartbreaking and could have been (at least in some measure) prevented.

Did you read/comprehend the post.??...I clearly said the curve WAS flattened....

So now that testing has been ramped up exponentially, its going to obviously skew the curve again...But if people aren't dying and the hospitals aren't in crisis. then why isn't this "different" than before?? Does this mean the same rules apply??

The "total number of deaths" had more to do with the insane way some local governors(in blue states, mostly) handled covid patients, failing to protect the elderly from contracting the virus, when these folks could succumb to practically any kind of bug....If you want to look at where the majority of deaths occurred, there is your answer..

TFY

July 5, 2020

I read that 80 percent of those that test positive are asymptomatic or have very mild symptoms. Perhaps some of those are even false positives but either way it no longer seems that dire of a situation because fewer are dying from it. And yes that matters to me.

July 5, 2020

34 minutes ago, Art_Critic said:

21 states had no deaths yesterday according to worldometer

I think this might be the first time I have ever seen this happen...

If there were no deaths in the beginning..say in March..would the country have been shut down ?

Could the reporting of deaths be lower than normal due to Independence Day?

Edited July 5, 2020 by Philosopher

July 5, 2020

2 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

Could the reporting of deaths be lower than normal due to Independence Day?

I don't know, it's possible I guess.. but not reporting deaths would mean today would be huge..

July 5, 2020

Here in Florida we just had our 3rd day of over 10,000 new cases. And there still is a problem with hospitals getting enough PPE.

Also, my brother in law had a test 11 days ago and still hasn't got the results back. He has no symptoms, but two co-workers tested positive, so he's self quarantined until he gets the test results back.

Yesterday there were long lines at a Home Depot nearby in 94 degree heat where they were conducting testing.

Edited July 5, 2020 by a LoveShack.org Moderator
removed political part, non political thread

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