death rate in perspective

[Beendaredonedat]

10 minutes ago, major_merrick said:

"And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads: And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name."  Revelation 13:16-17.  KJV.  Pretty simple.  That wasn't possible in the 1st century.  Now it is.  So when people talk about mandatory tracking, vaccination, or whatever....it is extremely chilling.  I'll pass on submitting to a totalitarian government controlled by Satan, and I'll oppose anything that even resembles it.

"Save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name."  The number of his name is 666  

Fail to see how you can relate revelation 13:16-17 to "vaccination or whatever."  You're entitled to your take on things, of course just as I am to find them rather radical. 

Be well, stay safe and keep self isolating so you don't spread of catch what is really, at this point the thing that you should find extremely chilling.

Edited April 4, 2020 by Beendaredonedat

[Gaeta]

7 hours ago, SincereOnlineGuy said:

Covid has killed 86 people to 

India has millions of people living on top of each other in extreme porverty, where neumonia and tuberculosis is already killing thousands so when it hits there it will hit without mercy They are 4 weeks behind Italy.  They probably have already 3 times more cases but the deaths aren't reported as covid...when the deaths are reported at all.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Gaeta

[nospam99]

@littleblackheart. Not exactly. My observation and the point of, this, my OP is that people die every year. The CDC data I linked show that a significant number of those people who die in the US, die of health problems that the covid-19 data I linkded show to heavily CORRELATE with (NOT cause!) covid-19 mortality. Were all the people dying (supposedly) of covid-19 going to die this year anyway because of their other health issues? Ridiculously UNLIKELY. Were MANY of them going to die this year? That may be very likely. We'll never know for sure. The best we will be able to generalize about these questions will have to wait for a few years of death rate data.

What I am concerned about is 'fake news' being used to create panic. How many deaths are being attributed to covid-19 for political reasons that would otherwise be attributed to, say, cardiovascular issues? How many deaths are being attributed to covid-19 just because the patient carried the virus when they also might have had a half dozen of the comorbidity factors? How many patients died this year instead of next year because their covid-19 infection pushed them 'over the edge'. Remember when people with AIDS were said to have died of other causes even though AIDS weakening their immune systems was a contributing factor in their deaths?

In the best of times, attributing a 'cause of death' is a 'game' heavily dependent on the highly variable skill of the physician making that determination. These are NOT 'the best of times'. The scale of the pandemic is stressing the health care system and putting pressure on the speed of triage. Who knows how political and media pressure is affecting cause of death determinations? From what I've seen of political and media pressure affecting information reporting when the world in not under the stress of a pandemic i.e. 'fake news' all day, every day, I expect a lot of that kind of pressure.

[Gaeta]

Doctors and other scientists usually don't give a heck about political and media pressure. These are people that beleive in science. 

I think you are wrong in thinking it's ok for these people to die because they would have died in the coming  year anyway, where do you get that?? Many older people that needed to be intubated made it through and are now rid of it. More and more people dying from this are younger with no health issues at all. 

If you are afraid of 'fake news' then watch news from other sources. 

[Marc878]

14 hours ago, Gaeta said:

India has millions of people living on top of each other in extreme porverty, where neumonia and tuberculosis is already killing thousands so when it hits there it will hit without mercy They are 4 weeks behind Italy.  They probably have already 3 times more cases but the deaths aren't reported as covid...when the deaths are reported at all.

A disaster waiting to happen. Huge slum areas. The only reason Italy is worse was the 300,000 Chinese working in Italy. Italy jumped in bed with China against everyone’s advice. Then the  “hug a Chinese” push. 
 

No wonder Italy is the apex outside China (you’ll never know the full story there, Iran or Russia).

Edited April 5, 2020 by Marc878

[littleblackheart]

4 hours ago, nospam99 said:

@littleblackheart. Not exactly. My observation and the point of, this, my OP is that people die every year. The CDC data I linked show that a significant number of those people who die in the US, die of health problems that the covid-19 data I linkded show to heavily CORRELATE with (NOT cause!) covid-19 mortality. Were all the people dying (supposedly) of covid-19 going to die this year anyway because of their other health issues? Ridiculously UNLIKELY. Were MANY of them going to die this year? That may be very likely. We'll never know for sure. The best we will be able to generalize about these questions will have to wait for a few years of death rate data.
 

I see. Personally. I've switched off C19 news. I find comparing 'death rates' at various points in the month to various countries to be grossly misleading, inhuman, tacky, disturbing and, ultimately, pointless. I don't know why the media do it non-stop. As you say, we'll have to wait a few years to know the damage this virus has caused. 

But I guess people react to pandemics in various ways; I like facts, and I also like action. The WHO are giving whatever facts they know when they know, medical professionals are asking us to help them reduce their workload, we are told by researchers and scientists that asymptomatic carriers play a non-negligible part in the spreading of the virus, that staying at home and being mindful of others is what we need to do and that everyone in the scientific community is working hard towards medication / antibodies / a vaccine.

So we know enough about c19 that it is a dangerous pandemic, that our health services are not equipped to deal with it and what we can do to help. The rest is, quite frankly, not necessary information (imo)

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by littleblackheart

[nospam99]

@gaeta. In NY, doctors and scientists may be working on important stuff behind the scenes. But in public they do and say what they are told to do and say in order to keep their jobs and licenses, especially the ones who are state employees.

[Gaeta]

nospam99: I have seen scientists experts in the US come out in public and say the complete opposite of Trump.

I agree doctors that are State employees and working for a Republican State don't have much liberty but you should consider all this when you listen to the news. Lucky you, Cuomo is your governor and the man speaks his mind and has leadership & charisma. We love him even up here.

[Tamfana]

34 minutes ago, nospam99 said:

@gaeta. In NY, doctors and scientists may be working on important stuff behind the scenes. But in public they do and say what they are told to do and say in order to keep their jobs and licenses, especially the ones who are state employees.

Professionals have independent ethical obligations, separate from their employers and employment, and adhering to scientific standards is required to retain professional  license.  

Not everyone lives by fear of loss, toadying to power and scraping for money. Some people have ethics and morals and not even cynics can change that.  

[gaius]

On 4/4/2020 at 4:14 PM, SincereOnlineGuy said:

Uh,  the Spanish Flu killed 5% of India's population.

Covid has killed 86 people in India to date   (13 million would be about 1% )

Do you think Covid will get to 68 million deaths in India?

I think one thing we should remember, other than the fact you predicted there would be more deaths in the US from toilet paper stampedes than from Coronavirus, is that numbers don't have to match exactly for it to be comparable.

Coronavirus has hit most of the world fairly hard and caused a good deal of social upheaval. Unparalleled since the Spanish flu. And while the death toll is unlikely to match for several reasons Corona does belong in the same league with it's 1918 counterpart.

You could say the Spanish flu is Babe Ruth and Corona Bill Buckner. 

 

[NuevoYorko]

On 4/4/2020 at 4:21 PM, major_merrick said:

 

Ah, but my community is voluntary.  Versus the kind of collective "society" that nobody will be able to opt out of. 

 

Ah.  But you are able to live the way that you do thanks to the larger society of which you are a part.   You are still driving vehicles on the road, I believe some of you have jobs outside of your little fort, you have been making use of public officials to specifically safeguard it.  Those people are public servants, paid for by taxpayers.  You go to stores, you pay sales tax, whoever works is probably paying income tax.  

No matter how much you  pontificate about being  special rainbow unicorns, you are still functioning within  the mores of your country's society at large and reaping many of its benefits.  So, like it or not, you hold some responsibility for the wellbeing of other people.  Get over it.

[SincereOnlineGuy]

On 4/4/2020 at 1:20 PM, elaine567 said:

This is just starting in India...
How many ventilators and intensive care beds are there for the masses?
That is what will  be the bottom line as to how many will die.
 

That did not address the question:

 

DO YOU THINK that 68 million people or more will die from this Covid-19 in India?

 

 

[elaine567]

The 1918 flu came back in its second wave and third waves to affect the young, the 20-50yos and the old, the W curve, if that happens with this virus, then I guess it is possible yes.
As it is, unless there are good medical facilities to treat those at most risk, then the numbers dying from Covid-19 in India, could still be very high due to the huge population.

[nittygritty]

I’m curious at how the cause of death is being determined. If someone has tested positive for  COVID-19 and then goes home and dies of a heroin overdose or something else are they included in the Coronavirus death rate?  Or if someone that wasn’t tested for COVID-19 dies due to respiratory illnesses and complications like pneumonia are they testing them after they die for COVID-19 or Influenza?  Or are they just including them in the “Coronavirus death rate”??? 

[NuevoYorko]

33 minutes ago, nittygritty said:

I’m curious at how the cause of death is being determined. If someone has tested positive for  COVID-19 and then goes home and dies of a heroin overdose or something else are they included in the Coronavirus death rate?  Or if someone that wasn’t tested for COVID-19 dies due to respiratory illnesses and complications like pneumonia are they testing them after they die for COVID-19 or Influenza?  Or are they just including them in the “Coronavirus death rate”??? 

Death from a heroin overdose is easily determined and would not be included in COVID-19 mortality stats.  Neither would death from any number of other causes not related to the effects of the virus, like a car accident, cancer, etc.

Death from pneumonia in a person who has tested positive for COVID-19 is considered a COVID-19 death.  Positive COVID-19 test before death required  for a death to be included in the statistics.

Deaths from COVID-19 are severely underreported because many have died without  getting tested.  There is not testing after death.   

Though testing in the US has stepped up a lot,  requirements for a test vary from state to state.  USA is testing at a much lower rate per capita than many countries.  Generally a recommendation from the person's health care provider is required.  In many places people who clearly exhibit all symptoms but are not at high risk or critically ill  are still told to go home and stay isolated without testing.  They are not included in "confirmed case" stats and if they die without being tested, their death will not be included in COVID-19 death stats. 

There is some discussion underway about testing post-mortem, which would change the stats significantly (for the worse).   An antibody test has just been approved by the FDA.  Turnaround time for the testing results is getting much quicker and the FDA has issued warnings about "at home" tests being advertised. 

[2BGoodAgain]

On 4/3/2020 at 9:51 AM, Gaeta said:

It makes a huge difference. You do not want to be sick on the other side of the borders without private insurance. The problem is so many Americans lost their insurance coverage when they lost their job. Sure if they are sick they will be taken care of you at the emergency but will follow a bill the size of a mortgage. 

Do you know 40% of Americans do not seek medical care because they are afraid of how much it will cost and this even with insurance as their premium often will run in the 5 digits.

that really depends.. most employers of mid end companies tend to provide optional supplement insurance on top of your regular medical... it covers emergencies like hospital stays, ambulance costs, etc... most people opt out b/c they think it'll never happen to them or they're playing the odds of it not happening to them... 

so i wouldn't say there aren't any options; it really depends on what the employers or their medical pact offers and what you're willing to pay...

honestly, i always max out my benefits b/c it only takes one time to ruin your year... and it's always good to have it, in case that happens. :)

[Mrin]

On 4/5/2020 at 7:26 AM, nospam99 said:

@littleblackheart. Not exactly. My observation and the point of, this, my OP is that people die every year. The CDC data I linked show that a significant number of those people who die in the US, die of health problems that the covid-19 data I linkded show to heavily CORRELATE with (NOT cause!) covid-19 mortality. Were all the people dying (supposedly) of covid-19 going to die this year anyway because of their other health issues? Ridiculously UNLIKELY. Were MANY of them going to die this year? That may be very likely. We'll never know for sure. The best we will be able to generalize about these questions will have to wait for a few years of death rate data.

What I am concerned about is 'fake news' being used to create panic. How many deaths are being attributed to covid-19 for political reasons that would otherwise be attributed to, say, cardiovascular issues? How many deaths are being attributed to covid-19 just because the patient carried the virus when they also might have had a half dozen of the comorbidity factors? How many patients died this year instead of next year because their covid-19 infection pushed them 'over the edge'. Remember when people with AIDS were said to have died of other causes even though AIDS weakening their immune systems was a contributing factor in their deaths?

In the best of times, attributing a 'cause of death' is a 'game' heavily dependent on the highly variable skill of the physician making that determination. These are NOT 'the best of times'. The scale of the pandemic is stressing the health care system and putting pressure on the speed of triage. Who knows how political and media pressure is affecting cause of death determinations? From what I've seen of political and media pressure affecting information reporting when the world in not under the stress of a pandemic i.e. 'fake news' all day, every day, I expect a lot of that kind of pressure.

Actually I just read an article on this. Most likely the number of coronavirus deaths is being underreported. Having Coronavirus isn't enough. You actually have to die from it meaning it is the primary cause of death. because test kits are still in the such short supply in the United States and the delay in getting test results often death certificates are being labeled as pneumonia being the cause of death not coronavirus. This actually happened here in my county. 

This should be something we can correct in hindsight simply by looking at the statistical trend line for pneumonia deaths and seeing if they spiked during this outbreak. Most likely the unexplained spike would be undiagnosed coronavirus. Does that make sense?

[elaine567]

Where I live we had 13 deaths in a nursing home from an Covid-19 outbreak, two  care workers got tested positive and were hospitalised but none of the residents got tested or hospitalised, so they did not appear on the statistics.
Reporting is being changed, but whether untested people dying at home can be included I am not sure.

 

[schlumpy]

1 hour ago, elaine567 said:

Where I live we had 13 deaths in a nursing home from an Covid-19 outbreak, two  care workers got tested positive and were hospitalised but none of the residents got tested or hospitalised, so they did not appear on the statistics.
Reporting is being changed, but whether untested people dying at home can be included I am not sure.

 

What about you elaine? How exposed are you to the virus? Are you keeping things buttoned up? 

[elaine567]

Well buttoned up. 🙂
Not a huge number of confirmed cases in my area but they are only testing hospitalised cases so difficult to say how rife/unrife it is.

[schlumpy]

It appears Sweden's rogue approach is going awry as they are backpedaling and predicting deaths in the thousands.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-refused-implement-coronavirus-lockdown-121642208.html

 

[introverted1]

As unpopular as I suspect this statement will be, from an evolutionary perspective, we are probably at a point in the world's lifecycle where it is time to thin the herd.  If 5% or even 10% of the weakest were to die, this would actually be a good thing in terms of earth and its resources.

At no other point in history have we had the ability to fight nature in the way that we are doing now.  And yes, the costs are going to be high.

This is reality, not my personal desire.  I have loved ones that I would be devastated if I lost. I am taking precautions.  I'm obeying stay-at-home orders (and was socially distancing before the order came).  But that doesn't mean that what we are doing is natural. It absolutely goes against nature.

 

[elaine567]

50 minutes ago, introverted1 said:

As unpopular as I suspect this statement will be, from an evolutionary perspective, we are probably at a point in the world's lifecycle where it is time to thin the herd.  If 5% or even 10% of the weakest were to die, this would actually be a good thing in terms of earth and its resources.

I agree it is the natural way. A population becomes too overcrowded and a virus or bacteria  invades and finds so many suitable hosts in close proximity to each other that it runs wild.
Population numbers reduce to the extent that  suitable hosts are difficult to find and the bacteria/virus dies out.

Seems to me everyone is so desperate" to get out of "lockdown" that some very stupid decisions could be made here.
Wuhan residents are today rushing to get onto planes and trains... smh. 
Viruses don't care about economies, or boredom or exercise or exam results.
Every time some media person comes on the scene they are mentioning how "crazy" everyone is getting, and when will the lockdown be reversed and when can we all get back to normal?
Time to stop all that nonsense and buckle down for the long haul.
During the war were they all bleating about how bored they were and how they HAD to get out for  run?
NO, everyone was petrified. 
People need to take this a lot more seriously and stop all the spoiled kid behaviour and act like adults.
Otherwise this could be going on for literally years...

[Foxhall]

in terms of the death rate in perspective, the crucial thing is at what rate the virus is being passed on person to person,

before strict lockdowns were introduced- statistical models are showing that one infected person was infecting another four people, you can only imagine the spiralling effect of that which is what happened in Italy and Spain,

by introducing lockdowns- this is working- one infected person is now re-infecting maybe 1 to 3 people instead of the previous 4 people,

before societies are functioning again that one infected person has to be re-infecting 0 people, some countries have got to that point.

parts of the USA and the UK, Spain, Italy are now the worst affected-  making progress but have a long way to go - the average now is one person reinfecting two other people,which is still way too high.

many countries, the smaller ones like ourselves are close to one person reinfecting one other person,

so in terms of the opening question here- the only thing that matters is getting these re-infection rates down and saving lives.

 

 

[schlumpy]

A high rate of transmission could also be culturally related.

Some societies encourage or expect a lot of family and friend contact where other cultures view isolation or a small circle of friends and family rarely seen as not abnormal. The feely-touchy society could then be expected to have a higher transmission rate then the closeted society.

It would skew the statistics to not adjust for that variable.