Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[justwhoiam]

39 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

How is the data that is used to produce that number collected, I wonder. 

I told you, you take number of people infected with the virus (around 70,000) and you get the number of people who died (around 7,000). The rate seems to vary a .5% depending on the day, but seems quite stable now... But to know the real lethality of Covid 19, you should only get those with pneumonia (I think 95% end up in hospital), and then see how many of those die. They are not passing those data now. But one of our doctors was interviewed and based on people entering hospitals there was a moment where the mortality rate was like 35%. For whatever reason. That 5% I left out is because yes, we had people dying at home and tested positive to Covid 19. Some were avoiding hospitals, some stopped breathing in their sleep. Some were home alone and didn't make it to reach out to anyone. And some old people died but were not tested, either at home or in a facility like a old people's home, but let's pretend they died from something else.

[2BGoodAgain]

18 hours ago, littleblackheart said:

Nearly 20,000 people are being tested every day for coronavirus in South Korea, more people per capita than anywhere else in the world, according to the BBC. Parts of Italy have started to do that too. They had a test ready in 17 days, made it free, quick and easily available (no need to go to a hospital, you can rock up to a testing facility set up in a parking lot, says the article). Imo, this makes it a lot easier to comply to gvt rules (that apparently Koreans are much better at doing than us in Europe, who are not particularly disciplined).

 

korea was more prepared or more paranoid by the SARs that happened earlier. Take your pick. So they had many more test kids available.

Italy literally ran out of tests... they didn't have as many test kits avail to them.. so they had to make guesses as to where the infections were going...etc.. unfortunately, it didn't work for them and their hospitals, esp the smaller towns...got overwhelmed by the infection rates and deaths.

[Beendaredonedat]

2 minutes ago, 2BGoodAgain said:

the 0.1% is the avg flu mortality rate. I was rather surprised by the number, tbh. I didn't think it was that high. the media never reports that tens of thousands of people die every year to the flu in the US alone.

Well, for all we know... tens of thousands more than the tens of thousand who die from the flu every year will die from this virus.  It's sad that Trump, at this point in his mind, is thinking to ignore the possibility.

[Azincourt]

5 minutes ago, littleblackheart said:

It's more the fact they don't want the federal state to pay for anyone to stay at home.

Yeah, capitalism is beautiful like that. Gotta make sure every economical agent is productive until the very end, and if by any chance the person dies - so what? There's tons of third-world immigrants who'd love to move to the USA and work the same job for a lot less money. That's how the men and women who own this Country at the moment think about the American Middle-class.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Azincourt

[2BGoodAgain]

17 hours ago, justwhoiam said:

So, if Americans will just go on with their lives and keep being contagious, I guess there'll be restrictions for them to travel abroad. You'll be the outcast.That said, if that happens, statistically some of you will be infected and likely end up in hospital.

What are they going to treat you with in the US? Do you know?

In Italy, antiviral drugs against HIV and ebola are being used, and more recently, with a drug that is against arthritis (tocilizumab). The latter seems to get you back on your feet faster, but doesn't work on everyone. At times they give you a mix of those, not sure, they're kind of experimenting on people.

There are people treated for many days... to get them out of ICUs, aka get lungs to work again. I'm wondering... we'll see the effects of those drugs on all these people in the future. It's unprecedented, and we don't know the effects on patients who suffered from this viral pneumonia, in 10, 20, 30 years.

I didn't say we go on with our daily lives... nothing will be the same... i'm suggesting that the economy still needs to go on.

Sure, the theaters may still be closed, prob gyms or anything else that large groups of people may get together... the fun stuff... 

we have to make adjustments to the reality of this virus that is going on.

[sothereiwas]

1 minute ago, justwhoiam said:

I told you, you take number of people infected with the virus

And you also told me we can't know that number ...  

13 hours ago, justwhoiam said:

I guess what you're looking for is the rate of people infected in a given population. We can't know that.

 

So that's why I have my doubts about the accuracy of the derived number. The fatality count is accurate, but the infection count is likely not. 

[pepperbird]

28 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

This actually is a stats problem, however. 

People seem to believe that "we" can stay at home and this will blow over. *I* can mostly stay at home, but I'm not typical. Most people have to go out and either earn money to get the things they need, or some people need to actually produce and make available those things. That means there is a level of ongoing interaction required for life to go on for most people, and THAT means this virus won't be stopped, it will just be slowed down. Most people will probably end up getting this sooner or later. 

Ideally therefore we want them to get it in a way that ensures as many as possible have the best odds of a good outcome both clinically and economically. We have to factor in a lot of things, including the probability of a vaccine later this year. But that's mostly going to be for next flu season, for now, as long as we don't kill the old people and we don't exceed medical capacity, we should do all we can to otherwise keep our economy healthy too. Because we all depend on it, not just the rich people. 

 

This is very true, and the idea of what makes someone essential can be quite surprising.
So far, "essential"services, at least where i live, varies by province. In mine, hospitals, first responders, etc. are considered "essential", but so is the liquor store. I guess buying booze is more important than overall health ( and yes, I understand addicts need to buy booze). In some provinces, commercial painters and even jewellery stores are considered "essential". My husband is considered "essential" because he works for the department of national defense-go figure.
We've been told that this virus is deadly, yet we were not permitted to close the borders nor even adequately screen people coming form China because it was considered "racist", even though the people coming back from China were fine with it and even pointed out that it wasn't happening and were concerned.
We have a lot of international students here. They have all been sent home unless they had to way to get there. They've been told they can register online for their summer curse,s so it looks like the plan is for them to come back mid-June. It will be interesting to see what happens then.

[pepperbird]

9 minutes ago, Gaeta said:

Who you would be ready to sacrifice amoung your family and friends in the name of the economy?

The economy will kick back in just fine! 

. I personally know of at least three small. businesses that have had to close their doors-mine being one of them.

They don't have the wherewithal to re-open, I'm lucky that I do and also have other clients I can fall back on if I need to. Not everyone is that fortunate..  I know this isn't a popular topic of conversation right now, but it's going to have to be addressed.
The virus will come and go, but the people will still be here. what's the best plan to minimize the negative impact and get people back to work as soon as possible?

Edited March 24, 2020 by pepperbird

[Azincourt]

1 minute ago, sothereiwas said:

And you also told me we can't know that number ...  

 

So that's why I have my doubts about the accuracy of the derived number. The fatality count is accurate, but the infection count is likely not. 

No, we can't know how many people are infected. The only way to solve this is for people to stay in their houses and to only leave them under certain situations.  I haven't left the house since the first Chinese cases were announced, and I ain't leaving until a vaccine is developed and is proven to be 100% effective.  Fortunately, I'm a single man without children, so  I am in a much better situation than many men and women who have a lot of responsabilities and need to keep working because Jeff Bezos and the child who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth doesn't want to pay people to stay home, to stay safe.

[Beendaredonedat]

Well, in Ontario. Liquor, beer, pot and cigarettes are very heavily taxed in order to help fund our universal health care system so I'm thinking they want those taxes to continue to come in.  They have equipped most of the cashiers in grocery stores where I live with plexiglas panels so they have very little contact with customers.  I suspect they will do the same in the booze and pot shops.

[pepperbird]

1 minute ago, Beendaredonedat said:

Well, in Ontario. Liquor, beer, pot and cigarettes are very heavily taxed in order to help fund our universal health care system so I'm thinking they want those taxes to continue to come in.  They have equipped most of the cashiers in grocery stores where I live with plexiglas panels so they have very little contact with customers.  I suspect they will do the same in the booze and pot shops.

They sell the pot here at the NSLC. It's a weird set up, You have to line up and then go behind the curtain to make your choice. It's just like the Wizard of Oz.

[2BGoodAgain]

19 hours ago, Woggle said:

The seasonal flu has not shut down entire countries in my lifetime and we as a society know how to deal with. There are also shots that you can get every year to protect yourself. We have a system in place to fight it while there is no system in place in place to fight Covid 19. There should be Manhattan Project level type of operation to find a vaccine and treatment for this but I don't see one. This country is incapable of doing anything anymore except for making the rich richer and bombing Middle Eastern countries.

of course not. before the flu vaccine was created, millions died... but that was back in the early 20th century. But let's put this in perspective... even WITH the annual flu shot, around 20-30k people die in the US alone. I never knew that the number was that high until i researched it. I never hear about it in the news... that many people die of the flu???

The rich get richer b/c they have more money to invest, and they can hire the smartest harvard boys n girls who work for them... throw in some special interest lobbying and a few more rich people get much more richer.

But only in America can you go from rags to riches... some by luck, some by sheer will power... and everything in between.

As for bombing the middle east...  dunno if we're good at it; i feel more like we lowered ourselves and joined the others who were already bombing each other anyway... i know, i know... Americans just did it bigger than anyone... 

at any rate... i believe we should extract ourselves from those regions... and let them go back to their original reasons for killing each other... it won't stop when we leave.. only when one side massacres the other side, then mebbe they'll be peace... then we'll get blamed for not preventing it. 

lol. can't win, either way. Might as well, just leave it alone.

[Gaeta]

1 minute ago, pepperbird said:

No, it wion;t. I perosnally know of at least three small. businesses that ahve had to close hteir doors.

They don;t have the wherewithall to re-open.

So some small businesses don't have the back to survive but the economy will still get back on track. Statistics shows that 25% of small businesses will have to file bankruptcy after this, but something like 50% of small businesses don't make it to 5 years in good times anyway. 

So again, some small businesses won't make it, some people will have to find other jobs after this....That is worth how  many life you think? The economy is not worth letting die thousands and thousands of people. 

There are families out there that have lost 3-4 members, I heard of a man losing his mother, sibblings and his wife....do you think he cares about the economy?

[2BGoodAgain]

10 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

And you also told me we can't know that number ...  

 

So that's why I have my doubts about the accuracy of the derived number. The fatality count is accurate, but the infection count is likely not. 

that's the thing... we can't trust the chinese gov't numbers... 

so we have to see how Italy turns out... and you'll prob get a more accurate number, infection rates, mortality rates...

south korea solved it too quick, and so we can't really get an accurate mortality rate. As morbid as it sounds, we can learn from the horrors of Italy. I feel sorry for those people.

[Gaeta]

6 minutes ago, Beendaredonedat said:

Well, in Ontario. Liquor, beer, pot and cigarettes are very heavily taxed in order to help fund our universal health care system so I'm thinking they want those taxes to continue to come in.  

Absolutely and if we close the liquor stores people will turn to the black market anyway and those tax money will be lost to the criminal market.

[2BGoodAgain]

14 minutes ago, Beendaredonedat said:

Well, for all we know... tens of thousands more than the tens of thousand who die from the flu every year will die from this virus.  It's sad that Trump, at this point in his mind, is thinking to ignore the possibility.

exactly, WE DONT KNOW... yet, we're making cripplying decisions based on China's numbers... and fear. We see S. Korea and they managed to kill it in the nub. Italy has had a worse path from the virus. Hopefully, we can get more accurate numbers from Italy's experiences.

trump was prob hoping for the best, but his response was also pretty bad. shutting things down.

The florida govenor's measured response was prob the closest to thinking w/ their brains instead of their fears.... 

 

[Beendaredonedat]

I don't believe they are making these decisions on China's numbers.  I believe they are making them on the severity of what the virus can do to us and how quickly it has spread from country to country... not to mention how long this thing can survive on any number of various surfaces.

[Gaeta]

3 minutes ago, 2BGoodAgain said:

exactly, WE DONT KNOW... yet, we're making cripplying decisions based on China's numbers...

Yes we cannot trust China's number, but one thing is sure, China was downplaying their infected cases and their death. That is bad news for us. 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Gaeta

[2BGoodAgain]

24 minutes ago, Beendaredonedat said:

Why does it make no sense?  EVERYONE is at risk.  Older people and those with pre existing conditions are just MORE at risk.  

everyone is potentially at risk for SOMETHING....like any other viruses or bacteria or car accidents or plane crashes... we still do them. Do you know how many people die in circus rides every year... we still do it. Why do we allow it, when everyone is at risk of injury?

the point i'm making is that, we mitigate the potential damage.. not shut down everything.. it makes no sense to do that when the vaccine is potentially 6 months to a year from now... 1-2tril dollars and they can only manage to give everyone 1,000$... plus $500 per kid. That's it, for 1-2trillion dollars...  we gotta last 6months to a year...

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by 2BGoodAgain

[justwhoiam]

11 minutes ago, 2BGoodAgain said:

I don't understand... you prefer EVERYONE to be locked down, and watch our economy go into the dump?

If the world closes up to the US, do you think your American economy will go up? Are you counting only on domestic demand?

Less than 156 million people work in the USA, out of 204 million of people who could work (18-65 years old). That means 24% of adults aged 18-65 are either sick, unemployed, homeless, do-nothing or rely on someone else's income. More than 49 million of people in your country live below poverty line = ARE POOR.

You import way MORE (150%+) than you export, so that means that the demand of your population exceeds your domestic offer. Your debt has tripled in just 15 years.

What f economy are your talking about? Wake up, man.

 

[2BGoodAgain]

25 minutes ago, justwhoiam said:

I told you, you take number of people infected with the virus (around 70,000) and you get the number of people who died (around 7,000). The rate seems to vary a .5% depending on the day, but seems quite stable now... But to know the real lethality of Covid 19, you should only get those with pneumonia (I think 95% end up in hospital), and then see how many of those die. They are not passing those data now. But one of our doctors was interviewed and based on people entering hospitals there was a moment where the mortality rate was like 35%. For whatever reason. That 5% I left out is because yes, we had people dying at home and tested positive to Covid 19. Some were avoiding hospitals, some stopped breathing in their sleep. Some were home alone and didn't make it to reach out to anyone. And some old people died but were not tested, either at home or in a facility like a old people's home, but let's pretend they died from something else.

and then you gotta throw in the number of people infected with mild or no symptoms... who never get tested...

we really don't know the mortality rate of covid-19.

i heard it was near 3.4% or higher. but it could be lower, b/c of the reason mentioned above...

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by 2BGoodAgain

[pepperbird]

2 minutes ago, Gaeta said:

So some small businesses don't have the back to survive but the economy will still get back on track. Statistics shows that 25% of small businesses will have to file bankruptcy after this, but something like 50% of small businesses don't make it to 5 years in good times anyway. 

So again, some small businesses won't make it, some people will have to find other jobs after this....That is worth how  many life you think? The economy is not worth letting die thousands and thousands of people. 

There are families out there that have lost 3-4 members, I heard of a man losing his mother, sibblings and his wife....do you think he cares about the economy?

No one is asking them to. I just think it's dangerous to get so bogged down in fear that one doesn't look to the future.
It's easy to blithely say " this many businesses may go under" but I ask you the same question you posed to me.
Would you still think it was a fair price to pay if it was YOUR business that closed? I understand the need for caution, but the long term impact of this virus may hurt even more than the disease itself. It's very important to minimize the impact so people can get back to their lives.

 

[2BGoodAgain]

29 minutes ago, littleblackheart said:

It's more the fact they don't want the federal state to pay for anyone to stay at home.

agreed. b/c who's taxes do you think will go up, when the they try to balance their budget? lol. 

ours...and who will we be pissed at? them. 

circle of life... (singing)...

[2BGoodAgain]

30 minutes ago, Gaeta said:

Who you would be ready to sacrifice amoung your family and friends in the name of the economy?

The economy will kick back in just fine! 

why does it have to be such extremes? no one is saying throw out granny into the streets....such a false argument, throwing out extremes like that.

and yes, the economy WILL kick back... after they've laid off people... it's easy to say the economy will kick back for those who aren't at risk of losing their jobs... some people don't have jobs that are fluid... where they can easily find another job, or secure at the job they're at... some people, when they lose that job.. it's gone forever. or a very long time.

[pepperbird]

9 minutes ago, 2BGoodAgain said:

exactly, WE DONT KNOW... yet, we're making cripplying decisions based on China's numbers... and fear. We see S. Korea and they managed to kill it in the nub. Italy has had a worse path from the virus. Hopefully, we can get more accurate numbers from Italy's experiences.

trump was prob hoping for the best, but his response was also pretty bad. shutting things down.

The florida govenor's measured response was prob the closest to thinking w/ their brains instead of their fears.... 

 

I keep going back to how my PM refused to do pretty much anything because it was considered "offensive", at least in his mind. When even people coming back from China are concerned there's no real screening at the airport, when a sick woman can get through and then die four hours later, the system needs a reboot.