Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[justwhoiam]

World trend: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

[sothereiwas]

3 hours ago, justwhoiam said:

Not sure what you mean by your reference to 0.1%. Right now, mortality rate is 4% in China (if their data are true). More like 10.5% in Italy. Let's see what will happen in the other countries. UK trend is already going higher than Italy's. 25% or so seem to end up in intensive care.

Numbers are tricky. You get tested for fatalitus, a disease with a 1 in 1,000,000 occurrence in the population and a 1% false positive rate, and the test is positive.

How scary is that?

So for Italy, 10% of what exactly?

[NuevoYorko]

8 hours ago, sothereiwas said:

About 100 people die in traffic every day, all year long. We still drive to work. Now I'm a fan of stricter licensing and encouraging telecommuting and discouraging extraneous travel, but the fact is this happens and no one really freaks out about it. 

So far SARS-COV-2 has killed fewer than 600 Americans. It's certainly going to get worse but a little perspective wouldn't hurt. 

OK.  More people die in car accidents.  Not at this concentrated rate - and, the people are still getting in accidents and needing an emergency room.   What are we supposed to do when not only COVID patients can't get a hospital bed, but neither can car accident, heart attack, etc. victims?  That's close to happening in a few days in WA.  

I'm assuming you're supportive of people over 60 being left to die, from the general tone of your posts on the subject.  Since we now know what Italy is facing, if our government chooses to sacrifice all the older people who are seriously ill,  wouldn't that be a form of genocide?  Ironic, too, as the ancient POTUS,  senators and rich folks in general will probably be spared. 

[justwhoiam]

56 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

So for Italy, 10% of what exactly?

Mortality rate

[justwhoiam]

We need to draw a distinction. SARS-COV-2 is the virus. You can get the virus and be contagious for apparently 37 days according to latest studies, but let's go with 24 days most expert says. Though the average considered by WHO and most countries is 14 days (but again, then you get so called reinfections, like in Japan).

COVID 19 is the disease you develop from SARS-COV-2, aka the aggressive pneumonia that is dangerous. Initially China said it was a 1% rate. Now it's adjusted to 4%. In Italy it's 10.5%.

What I'd be interested in the most would be only Covid 19 cases, so those who developed pneumonia, and know how many survived. THEN you have the real mortality rate of Covid 19, that might well be 20%. Maybe more.

[sothereiwas]

7 minutes ago, justwhoiam said:

Mortality rate

So with a population of a bit over 60 million, they now have 6 million dead? Wow that escalated quickly. Or as I asked, 10% of WHAT.

[justwhoiam]

The trend on the calendar: https://i.ibb.co/V2vshfF/Trend.jpg

[justwhoiam]

3 minutes ago, sothereiwas said:

So with a population of a bit over 60 million, they now have 6 million dead? Wow that escalated quickly. Or as I asked, 10% of WHAT.

Mortality rate is calculated not on the overall population, but in the group of people who get infected. That's how you calculate mortality for a disease.

Edited March 24, 2020 by justwhoiam

[justwhoiam]

I guess what you're looking for is the rate of people infected in a given population. We can't know that.

[LivingWaterPlease]

Haven't driven anywhere for a week but had to go to the store for an essential item today (Monday). So took some return items back at the same time.

While standing in line, the young woman in front of me at one point had her thumb in her mouth. And the woman (cashier with Sha Sha on her name tag, that caught my fancy!) at the returns counter scrutinized her receipt by leaning forward with her elbow on the counter and her face resting in her hand, thumb on her cheek and index finger on her lips poking her finger into her mouth now and then! 

Could hardly believe it! Are these people not reading or watching the news? What are they thinking? Even if there was no Coronavirus, doing that after touching things in a store? smh

Last week when I was out I saw a lady walk into a store that offered hand sanitizing wipes and pass right by them, grabbing a cart!

Made several stops for errands and each time after being in a store and before getting in my car washed my hands with soap and water I carry in my car.  Works much better than hand sanitizer. Takes a little over a quart of water to thoroughly rinse off the soap.

While pushing my cart in the store am using a disinfectant wipe to cover the part of the bar I grip. There were more people in the stores than usual. I guess that's because the stores aren't open as long as they usually are?

[Redhead14]

6 hours ago, NuevoYorko said:

OK.  More people die in car accidents.  Not at this concentrated rate - and, the people are still getting in accidents and needing an emergency room.   What are we supposed to do when not only COVID patients can't get a hospital bed, but neither can car accident, heart attack, etc. victims?  That's close to happening in a few days in WA.  

I'm assuming you're supportive of people over 60 being left to die, from the general tone of your posts on the subject.  Since we now know what Italy is facing, if our government chooses to sacrifice all the older people who are seriously ill,  wouldn't that be a form of genocide?  Ironic, too, as the ancient POTUS,  senators and rich folks in general will probably be spared. 

Let's not forget, these things can mutate.  What happens if it's allowed to "fester" and change and run rampant?  Does it eventually evolve into something that starts killing younger, healthier people too??? 

And, yes, what some of these people are suggesting is genocide.  Trump is talking about getting the country up and running again very soon to protect the economy.  Great.  I won't be able to spend time with my children or go to the garden center or to a family wedding or funeral or on a vacation for a year or more or maybe ever.   Are the people who have this attitude going to tell their parents and/or grandparents that this is their fate and that they were supporters of it?  Again, I am only 61, work/contribute to society and healthy but at high risk because I have AFib (which is not because I don't take care of myself).  I get tossed out of society like trash???  Thanks very much.  All the people who have this attitude can . . .

Edited March 24, 2020 by Redhead14

[Redhead14]

And, unless I missed something, We, the older and/or more vulnerable members of this country's society are still entitled to Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness even though we are older and/or have underlying conditions!!!!! 

[lana-banana]

19 minutes ago, Redhead14 said:

And, unless I missed something, We, the older and/or more vulnerable members of this country's society are still entitled to Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness even though we are older and/or have underlying conditions!!!!! 

Nope, per our president and Fox News and even the governor of Texas, you should be expected to drop dead for The Economy(TM). Sorry!

It disgusts me how people talk about The Economy like it's some kind of obscure elder god who literally runs on blood sacrifices. For one thing, that's not true---actual economic value comes from natural resources, infrastructure, and capabilities, not the stock market---and for another thing, it's a false choice. Let's say we do all go back to work in a couple days and let the virus run rampant. Hospitals become overwhelmed, the mortality rate skyrockets to ~3%, everyone becomes bogged down in the new reality of neverending funeral arrangements and hospital visits and mourning. Small businesses like independent restaurants and shops close because the health care costs for their employees will bankrupt them. The Economy(TM) will still fail because nobody's going to be out enjoying their lives after all their elderly relatives are dead. In this case we've basically killed off our entirely elderly population and done nothing to help working people.

We could do what civilized countries are doing and simply pay people to stay home. 75-80-100% of their salaries to just stay the hell indoors and pay their bills. Nobody goes bankrupt, nobody loses their home, the hospital system functions as needed because nobody is spreading the virus, folks can still buy food, businesses have far fewer layoffs. We don't need to pay to bail out companies, especially not those that have spent 96% of their available money on stock buybacks. We can pay people to stay home.

Oh...what's that? Six out of seven of the president's best-performing businesses have closed since the outbreak started? Oops, sorry, I guess it's better if everybody with health conditions or over 60+ should just be resigned to death. Too bad, The Economy(TM) demands it. MAGA!

Edited March 24, 2020 by lana-banana

[Libby1]

11 hours ago, Redhead14 said:

Frankly, I don't have an issue staying in.  I don't really want to be around people who have the kinds of attitudes I've been hearing about.  Let them have at it.  My grandmother had a saying -- "the world is going to hell in a handbag".  She didn't know how right she was . . . but hey, the handbag will be Gucci at least.

Amen.  The BBC news is now saying that 85% of new cases are coming from Europe and the US...and predictions are that the US is about to become the new epicentre of the pandemic.  I cannot get my head around people continuing to hold to the old "seasonal flu kills more people each year...".   Well, I mean I can in a sense...given that that was my initial reaction almost 2 months ago.  So I suppose maybe if people have been living in a cave for the past 6 weeks and are only now starting to look into this they might still be thinking in those terms.  However, in a month's time this pandemic will almost certainly have killed  far more people in the US and Europe than seasonal flu will have over the past year.

 

[pepperbird]

I'm just glad our opposition was watching.
Our PM tried to enact a far teaching bill that would allow it unilaterally change tax laws and spend funds without approval of the full parliament. This would effectively nullify the voices of the majority, of our citizens, as it's a minority government.

 

[Redhead14]

1 minute ago, Libby1 said:

Amen.  The BBC news is now saying that 85% of new cases are coming from Europe and the US...and predictions are that the US is about to become the new epicentre of the pandemic.  I cannot get my head around people continuing to hold to the old "seasonal flu kills more people each year...".   Well, I mean I can in a sense...given that that was my initial reaction almost 2 months ago.  So I suppose maybe if people have been living in a cave for the past 6 weeks and are only now starting to look into this they might still be thinking in those terms.  However, in a month's time this pandemic will almost certainly have killed  far more people in the US and Europe than seasonal flu will have over the past year.

 

The people who are still holding on to the old "seasonal flu kills more people", are not in touch with reality.  They are self-soothing by employing the, largely, dysfunctional coping mechanisms of denial and dissociation.  Their minds cannot grasp the magnitude of the situation because they have had their noses up their own asses, wallets and cell phones for so long that anything that could pop their bubbles can't be real.  And, if those mechanisms falter in them for even a minute, they look for something/someone/some group to shift the burden to to save their own butts.

[Redhead14]

I guess us older folks should just kiss our lives goodbye right now.  Like I said earlier, Trump is going to open the country for business soon and before the virus is under control. I'm going to call my children and have them over for dinner tomorrow.  If I get it, I get it.  I will die alone but at least I will have said goodbye in person and could hug them. There is no way in hell that we elders will not be sacrificed at the altar of greed and avarice - Maga -- Make America Greedy Again (yeah, it's been like that for a long time anyway, but I like the spin off

Edited March 24, 2020 by Redhead14

[LivingWaterPlease]

1 hour ago, Redhead14 said:

I guess us older folks should just kiss our lives goodbye right now.  Like I said earlier, Trump is going to open the country for business soon and before the virus is under control. I'm going to call my children and have them over for dinner tomorrow.  If I get it, I get it.  I will die alone but at least I will have said goodbye in person and could hug them. There is no way in hell that we elders will not be sacrificed at the altar of greed and avarice - Maga -- Make America Greedy Again (yeah, it's been like that for a long time anyway, but I like the spin off

We can continue to self isolate. Just because Trump opens the country doesn't mean we have to expose ourselves to our families (or anyone else) who may be carrying it.

We can make decisions for ourselves and stick to them. That's what I plan to continue doing. I live in an area where we can go about our business pretty much as usual. Rather than doing that, I'm taking pretty strict precautions.

But, saw two women at a big box store yesterday, both with their fingers in their mouths. One of them was behind the counter in customer service. She'd been handling money from the public, their receipts, etc. and put her index finger in her mouth as I watched. Their stupidity is on them, not on Trump or anyone else. If they get sick, it's not because the store was open or because of anything Trump did. 

You can't legislate stupid. If everything shuts down and everyone is forced to stay inside their own homes here, those two women will most likely find a way to exercise stupidity.

People need to take responsibility for themselves.

That is not to say there aren't people who will get sick with Coronavirus and other things while not sticking fingers in mouths at stores. Such is life and death. But, it truly pays to take responsibility for oneself. Not to depend on the government, Drs. or anyone else. It's not foolproof but it's a good start.

Hand sanitizer is not nearly as effective as soap and water. That information is being disseminated freely. As the saying goes, "A word to the wise is sufficient." Soap and water is accessible to all and can be carried in one's car. Makes sense to use it.

[Redhead14]

11 minutes ago, LivingWaterPlease said:

We can continue to self isolate. Just because Trump opens the country doesn't mean we have to expose ourselves to our families (or anyone else) who may be carrying it.

We can make decisions for ourselves and stick to them. That's what I plan to continue doing. I live in an area where we can go about our business pretty much as usual. Rather than doing that, I'm taking pretty strict precautions.

But, saw two women at a big box store yesterday, both with their fingers in their mouths. One of them was behind the counter in customer service. She'd been handling money from the public, their receipts, etc. and put her index finger in her mouth as I watched. Their stupidity is on them, not on Trump or anyone else. If they get sick, it's not because the store was open or because of anything Trump did. 

You can't legislate stupid. If everything shuts down and everyone is forced to stay inside their own homes here, those two women will most likely find a way to exercise stupidity.

People need to take responsibility for themselves.

That is not to say there aren't people who will get sick with Coronavirus and other things while not sticking fingers in mouths at stores. Such is life and death. But, it truly pays to take responsibility for oneself. Not to depend on the government, Drs. or anyone else. It's not foolproof but it's a good start.

Hand sanitizer is not nearly as effective as soap and water. That information is being disseminated freely. As the saying goes, "A word to the wise is sufficient." Soap and water is accessible to all and can be carried in one's car. Makes sense to use it.

You are missing the point and/or haven't been following the thread closely to understand what I am responding to.  Nevertheless, I am following guidelines very strictly!!!!  I'm 61 and have an underlying condition that is no a result of me not taking care of myself, etc.  I've been in isolation for weeks already and, now because of my A-hole neighbor upstairs who came into my home to do a leak repair from his condo down to mine, I cannot even spend time with my SO.  The neighbor didn't tell me until later that he works in the county in our state that has the highest infection rate and is still working in an office with 500 people.  IF Trump opens the country up again and the virus is not under control, we are going to have to be living like this forever - we being, older and higher risk people  We won't be able to interact in person with our families again because they will still be going about their business all day every day and we won't know if they are carrying it or not!  That is Fing Bullsh*t.  And, an extremely cavalier attitude toward a group of people who still have lives to live and want to enjoy as much as we can before the country is run to complete and utter sh*t.

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by Redhead14

[Gaeta]

All of us outside the US are extremely worried about what is about to happen to the United States. I don't understand some Americans still think this is just a seasonal flu. So the entire scientist community of all the world is wrong in their analyzes...

[Marc878]

16 minutes ago, Gaeta said:

All of us outside the US are extremely worried about what is about to happen to the United States. I don't understand some Americans still think this is just a seasonal flu. So the entire scientist community of all the world is wrong in their analyzes...

Not sure where you’re getting your info but everyone around me is in lockdown. I have kids in Illinois, North Carolina and Florida. They are in lockdown as well. Same with a friend in California.

All hospitals in the area have delayed surgery etc and are in lockdown as well.

Believing in the news media in today’s world is pretty naive.

[elaine567]

5 minutes ago, Gaeta said:

. I don't understand some Americans still think this is just a seasonal flu.

It suits them to think that way, as that way allows them to carry on as normal.
It is also a way of self-soothing
This isn't happening lalala fingers in the ears.
Everyone is just panicking and overreacting over nothing..

 

[amaysngrace]

He’s just saying he’s going to open sooner rather than later to give the markets a bump.  

He’s not that difficult to read or to know what fuels him, or what fuels people in general really.  

If him saying that brings comfort to some then so what?  It’s actions that matter.

Edited March 24, 2020 by amaysngrace

[Tamfana]

5 minutes ago, Marc878 said:

Not sure where you’re getting your info but everyone around me is in lockdown. I have kids in Illinois, North Carolina and Florida. They are in lockdown as well. Same with a friend in California.

All hospitals in the area have delayed surgery etc and are in lockdown as well.

Believing in the news media in today’s world is pretty naive.

There are places that are not locked down.  Don't keep blaming "the media."  

[Marc878]

2 minutes ago, Tamfana said:

There are places that are not locked down.  Don't keep blaming "the media."  

Not that I’ve seen. And that’s a pretty broad spectrum. Not speculation or hearsay.

Edited March 24, 2020 by Marc878