serial muse Posted February 24, 2020 Posted February 24, 2020 13 hours ago, gaius said: It seems like the outbreaks in Italy and South Korea caught them by surprise. By the time they realized the virus was even there hundreds were already infected. Which is not an unlikely scenario in the US if we get our one social butterfly super spreader who just can't stand to be stuck at home. At least everyone has been given ample notice at this point. Or, for example, when the State Dept insists on putting people who have tested positive for the virus on a plane with healthy people, over the objections of CDC. All for grandstanding. Awesomesauce. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-diamond-princess-cruise-americans/2020/02/20/b6f54cae-5279-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html 2
SincereOnlineGuy Posted February 24, 2020 Posted February 24, 2020 3 hours ago, carhill said: I read that North Korea is executing quarantine escapees. Don't know if true or not. Think it can't happen? North Korea probably executes little kids whose Hot Wheels cars fall off the track, so that might not be statistically significant.
carhill Posted February 24, 2020 Posted February 24, 2020 If the bullet is in your brain it might be significant, if briefly
Author gaius Posted February 25, 2020 Author Posted February 25, 2020 10 hours ago, Libby1 said: There's a piece in the Miami Herald about a guy who had been to China, developed flu symptoms, returned home and did the right thing (checked negative for Coronavirus) and is now landed with a bill for $1400. That seems like something that needs to be addressed swiftly. The last thing you want is for people to disguise symptoms and avoiding getting checked out because they don't want to be landed with a medical bill. I hadn't thought about that but you're right. The fact many in the US avoid the doctor due to cost could make us even more vulnerable than many other countries. That combined with the fact I doubt our elected officials would be willing to take the kind of steps China has. It seems likely the patient zero perpetrator in Italy was either asymptomatic or had a mild case and never went to the doctor. They still can't find him/her apparently. If people aren't seeking treatment in a country where it's free that doesn't bode well for us. 2
Libby1 Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, gaius said: I hadn't thought about that but you're right. The fact many in the US avoid the doctor due to cost could make us even more vulnerable than many other countries. That combined with the fact I doubt our elected officials would be willing to take the kind of steps China has. I had another look at that Miami story. The guy who went to get checked had a limited health insurance plan - one of the so-called "junk insurance plans" . He has to pay the first $1400 of the cost of getting treated, but he also has to provide the insurance company with 3 years of medical records to prove he had no pre-existing condition. Otherwise he'll have to pay the entire cost of getting tested - which so far stands at $3,270, but it seems like his bill might end up being even higher. Jackson Health officials say that there are more bills for Azcue on the way, but it’s unclear what those will total, as they are going to be issued by the University of Miami Health System, or UHealth, for treatment provided by their staff physicians who work at Jackson. He'd told the hospital that it was coming out of his pocket and to restrict the test to a blood test (they wanted to give him a CT scan). I'm guessing that in hospitals that charge privately every possible precaution is taken to protect staff from the coronavirus hence the enormous cost. If that's what they charged for a blood test and nasal swab, can you imagine the cost if he'd let them pressure him into getting the CT scan they said he needed? I don't know much about these limited or "junk" insurance plans, but I'd think that anybody who has one should read the small print before taking any sort of trip that might be the insurance company might argue constitutes a high risk activity (while the coronavirus threat continues) - and making sure their employer covers them effectively if they're sent on a work related trip in case the worst happens and the company that flogged them a limited insurance plan successfully argues their way out of paying for any medical bills. But really, if this does explode into a major infection risk in the US...surely the government will have to put an emergency contingency plan into place whereby it agrees to meet the costs of testing people for coronavirus? I understand that Trump fired the entire pandemic response chain of command in 2018. I know it's important not to let a thread on a subject like this become consumed with politics as so many other conversations do, but there's no escaping the reality that pandemics are a political issue - with government playing a major role in their management. If existing cases do start to spread, and if the people who had the expertise and skills to formulate an effective and rapid response to pandemics were fired two years ago, then the President is going to have to re-invent the wheel very quickly.
pepperbird Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 20 hours ago, carhill said: Scary version is germ warfare experimentation to effect forced quarantine to control population in times of 'unrest'. We tend to see these things as 'life happens' but sometimes some people have an agenda and human life doesn't really matter in that. I read that North Korea is executing quarantine escapees. Don't know if true or not. Think it can't happen? Then there's the profit angle. Who profits from illness and death? I was once young and idealistic and thought the best of the human race. Then life happened. Best wishes to those afflicted. Sounds like it'll end up being most of us at some point. how did the virus even reach north korea in the first place? its so isolated and it's not like a lot of international flights got there. Edited February 25, 2020 by pepperbird
elaine567 Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 27 minutes ago, pepperbird said: how did the virus even reach north korea in the first place? No cases, just a lot of foreigners quarantined.
Ellener Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 22 hours ago, Libby1 said: We all import so much from that area...and while cheap shoes and clothes might not seem to be such a big deal, a potential shortage of the drugs and medicines normally imported from there is more so. True. The world has been over-reliant on the Chinese workforce for years and any number of things could unbalance that, not least that the people there might want and deserve their freedom. What needs to be stressed in terms of coping with any upper respiratory viral illness is the same: rest, keep body temperature/fever down, drink fluids, isolate yourself from others as much as possible. If it gets worse or there's severe breathing distress then call emergency room or doctor- as with 'flu not everyone needs to be automatically visiting the doctor office infecting others. Don't panic!!!
2BGoodAgain Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, pepperbird said: how did the virus even reach north korea in the first place? its so isolated and it's not like a lot of international flights got there. um.. North Korea has a big border with China? lol. how else do you think forbidden goods gets smuggled into N. Korea? How else do you think their leader gets his high end modern cars and his Euro cheeses/wines, etc? lol. 1 1
pepperbird Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 35 minutes ago, 2BGoodAgain said: um.. North Korea has a big border with China? lol. how else do you think forbidden goods gets smuggled into N. Korea? How else do you think their leader gets his high end modern cars and his Euro cheeses/wines, etc? lol. I know he has them shipped in- it's odd what some dinky little producer in northern quebec is allowed to export
2BGoodAgain Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 10 minutes ago, pepperbird said: I know he has them shipped in- it's odd what some dinky little producer in northern quebec is allowed to export capitalism, socialism, dictatorships, communisms...... all have one thing in common. People.
pepperbird Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, 2BGoodAgain said: capitalism, socialism, dictatorships, communisms...... all have one thing in common. People. ghat, and an ability to find a way to work around the system if one looks hard enough
serial muse Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, elaine567 said: No cases, just a lot of foreigners quarantined. No cases officially confirmed (WHO reports are based on North Korea's self-reporting, which...yeah), but it's almost certainly there. Several South Korean media outlets, many of which have sources inside the country, have reported several deaths already in North Korea due to the virus. There are also hundreds of cases of the virus in the two Chinese provinces bordering North Korea. It's there. Edited February 25, 2020 by serial muse 1
elaine567 Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 12 minutes ago, serial muse said: No cases officially confirmed (WHO reports are based on North Korea's self-reporting, which...yeah), but it's almost certainly there. Agreed. Unfortunately I think it is everywhere in the world. It is postulated the virus can exist for 9 days on an inanimate object. Quote In fact, not a lot is known about the COVID-19 virus at all, so researchers are turning to similar coronaviruses, like SARS and MERS, for answers. Reviewing the literature on all available human and veterinary viruses within this family, encompassing 22 studies, researchers have found that the human pathogens can persist on surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days. (To put that in perspective, the measles virus can live on contaminated surfaces for up to two hours.)https://www.sciencealert.com/study-shows-just-how-long-coronaviruses-can-stick-around-on-a-surface Online stores are full of goods coming direct from China... Let's hope they take more than 9 days to get here. 1
sothereiwas Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, elaine567 said: Online stores are full of goods coming direct from China... Let's hope they take more than 9 days to get here. I doubt that typical items in the Amazon warehouse are produced in a hands-on environment where people are sneezing on the production line and then shipped, warehoused, and delivered in less than 9 days. The stuff I get that comes from places like ALiBaba take WEEKS to transit. Not seeing a big deal but if I die of COVID-19 I'll be sure to let everyone know. 1
carhill Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 Air-freight might be an issue. Some vendors in China ship via postal airmail/freight or similar freight services. I mention that because of 3rd party sellers on Amazon. As example, some dental ceramic I bought from India via Amazon awhile ago came airmail and cleared customs in New York. 1
Author gaius Posted February 25, 2020 Author Posted February 25, 2020 12 hours ago, Libby1 said: But really, if this does explode into a major infection risk in the US...surely the government will have to put an emergency contingency plan into place whereby it agrees to meet the costs of testing people for coronavirus? I understand that Trump fired the entire pandemic response chain of command in 2018. I know it's important not to let a thread on a subject like this become consumed with politics as so many other conversations do, but there's no escaping the reality that pandemics are a political issue - with government playing a major role in their management. If existing cases do start to spread, and if the people who had the expertise and skills to formulate an effective and rapid response to pandemics were fired two years ago, then the President is going to have to re-invent the wheel very quickly. I worked with the national guard briefly after Hurricane Michael left some parts of Florida without power for months. They set up little camps where people could go for food, water and basic medicine and medical supplies. Had a pharmacy set up and everything. I would imagine they would have to do something like that again where you could go and get tested for free. Because even if they offered to pay for testing I don't think the existing medical infastructure in most areas could handle the rush. And there would likely be a supply shortage as well with people cleaning out stores in panic mode. So they would have to deal with that also. Right now the CDC seems to be handling things as well as can be, despite the one state department boondoggle serial mentioned. I would hope they are using the time they have now to prepare behind the scenes though. The rest of Europe should as well. Because it will be a miracle if in a week or two there aren't more outbreaks after what's happening in Italy. 1 1
Libby1 Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 3 hours ago, gaius said: Right now the CDC seems to be handling things as well as can be, despite the one state department boondoggle serial mentioned. I would hope they are using the time they have now to prepare behind the scenes though. The rest of Europe should as well. Because it will be a miracle if in a week or two there aren't more outbreaks after what's happening in Italy. The situation in Italy is worrying. They're up to 11 deaths from it now, with almost 300 infections. Similar to the figures reported in Hubei round about a month ago, but most of them are in Lombardy which has about one sixth the population of Hubei. The Lombardy super-spreader "Mattia" is thought to have caught it from a Chinese friend in early February. While he was (unwittingly) infectious, Mattia had run a half marathon with over a thousand people, run another race, worked at a Unilever office (about 160 workers there now quarantined), played football and been out to dinner on various occasions. Then, to make matters worse, he attended Codogno hospital with symptoms on 18th February, only to be turned away. He went back on the 19th (when his pregnant wife remembered his dinner in early February with the friend from China) and was tested and confirmed. Lombardy is a popular destination for ski-ing holidays. Several kids on school ski-ing trips have returned to the UK recently, displaying flu like symptoms which has resulted in three schools being temporarily closed to undergo deep cleaning. 2
lana-banana Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 Let's see. The CDC is advising people not to panic, but strongly suggesting Americans should prepare themselves for "significant disruptions" to their daily lives. They have also acknowledged that the number of cases in the US is probably higher than we realize, due to how difficult it is to assess. The head of DHS gave incorrect information about the lethality of the virus and claimed a vaccine would be available within a month. Meanwhile, HHS flatly contracted DHS and suggested a vaccine would be coming in about a year, maybe, and that we probably do not have enough respirators. The president is flatly refusing to acknowledge the extent of the crisis and is instead giving false information. He is contradicting the experts at the CDC and HHS because he is more concerned about his poll numbers than the safety of the American people. Remember, he disbanded the WH/NSC team for pandemic preparedness in 2018. Oh, and Larry Kudlow is telling people that the virus is "mostly contained" and telling us to buy stocks. I'm not the panicking kind, but it is disheartening and upsetting in the extreme to see how badly this is being managed in the United States, and I hate thinking about how many people may suffer or die because the administration's chief priority is looking good. 1
elaine567 Posted February 25, 2020 Posted February 25, 2020 According to the Telegraph the UK is proposing mass surveillance coronavirus testing by GPs as they fear the disease is more widespread than they thought.
Author gaius Posted February 26, 2020 Author Posted February 26, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Libby1 said: The situation in Italy is worrying. They're up to 11 deaths from it now, with almost 300 infections. Similar to the figures reported in Hubei round about a month ago, but most of them are in Lombardy which has about one sixth the population of Hubei. The Lombardy super-spreader "Mattia" is thought to have caught it from a Chinese friend in early February. While he was (unwittingly) infectious, Mattia had run a half marathon with over a thousand people, run another race, worked at a Unilever office (about 160 workers there now quarantined), played football and been out to dinner on various occasions. Then, to make matters worse, he attended Codogno hospital with symptoms on 18th February, only to be turned away. He went back on the 19th (when his pregnant wife remembered his dinner in early February with the friend from China) and was tested and confirmed. Figures. They should give him a public flogging after he recovers. Dickhead. And as far as the politics goes, this is beyond that. Trump is spouting bad information and the Democrats are holding up additional funding over a juvenile spat. Neither are rising to the occasion. So far we've done well with the quarantine policy and the travel ban but now is the time to come together to get a solid plan in place so we're ready if we do have a breakout. Edited February 26, 2020 by gaius
nittygritty Posted February 26, 2020 Posted February 26, 2020 Dr. Nancy Messonnier the Senior CDC official is Rod Rosenstein’s sister.
pepperbird Posted February 26, 2020 Posted February 26, 2020 12 hours ago, elaine567 said: According to the Telegraph the UK is proposing mass surveillance coronavirus testing by GPs as they fear the disease is more widespread than they thought. If that cases go up, but the number of deaths does not, then that means the virus is a lot less deadly than what we've been told. If 200 people are sick and five die, that's a lot different than 100 being sick and five die.
Redhead14 Posted February 26, 2020 Posted February 26, 2020 12 minutes ago, pepperbird said: If that cases go up, but the number of deaths does not, then that means the virus is a lot less deadly than what we've been told. If 200 people are sick and five die, that's a lot different than 100 being sick and five die. I doubt that the 5 who die would have this perspective . . .
Author gaius Posted February 26, 2020 Author Posted February 26, 2020 The death rate in Korea has largely matched the Chinese numbers. Which have actually skewed up to over 3%. It's likely the number will end up higher than that as well due to how they're counting it. Right now the minute a person gets diagnosed they count them against the death rate even if the virus hasn't had much time to develop. Last I checked the recovery vs death rate numbers, death was over 10%. But that number likely isn't accurate either. It will probably end up somewhere in the middle of the two.
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