Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[clia]

If I recall correctly, Chris Cuomo continued hosting his show during his entire illness and even went out to his home in the Hamptons.   

But ok.  

Edited May 12, 2020 by clia

[Redhead14]

1 minute ago, clia said:

If I recall correctly, Chris Cuomo continued hosting his show during his entire illness and even went out to his home on the Hamptons.   

But ok.  

If you saw his reports, he described very high fevers, vivid and frightening hallucinations and excruciating breathing troubles.  He also lost 13 pounds in 3 days and chipped a tooth because he was shivering so hard.  He also had a resurgence.  He was not hosting the show when the illness was at it worst.

[sothereiwas]

1 hour ago, clia said:

Can you please provide some support for these statements?  Because everything I've seen indicates that 80% of people have mild symptoms. 

Governor Cuomo says he/they reckon 90% or so of people have little or no symptoms. Latest estimates are 30% of NY have been exposed, so let's see .... carry the one .... if that's NY state ... 20,000,000 x 0.3 .... 6,000,000, so then 20,000 dead (or so) so 20,000/6,000,000 .... wow really small number. Hmmm, maybe that's NYC, so that would be 8.4 million, carry the three, hmmm, still pretty small number. 

Yeah, if you're not already sick, it's basically not that deadly, it's just really really easy to pass. 

[carhill]

So, checked today, no new cases and, in a remarkable turn of events, only seven cases remain active out of a mind-numbing 24 cases wracking the county. 17 have now been cleared as recovered. Nobody died.  Rural Oregonians are hard to kill However, in an abundance of caution and with extraordinary insight, our learned governor has decided to keep Oregon closed until not one, but two days after July 4th. Heh, OK, good luck with that. All the urban folks will be escaping to the rural coast to celebrate, unencumbered by masks or shutdowns. IDK, should we stop them at the county line?

[gaius]

5 hours ago, sothereiwas said:

Governor Cuomo says he/they reckon 90% or so of people have little or no symptoms. Latest estimates are 30% of NY have been exposed, so let's see .... carry the one .... if that's NY state ... 20,000,000 x 0.3 .... 6,000,000, so then 20,000 dead (or so) so 20,000/6,000,000 .... wow really small number. Hmmm, maybe that's NYC, so that would be 8.4 million, carry the three, hmmm, still pretty small number. 

Yeah, if you're not already sick, it's basically not that deadly, it's just really really easy to pass. 

Last I heard from the antibody tests, which have a higher chance for false positives than negatives, about 12% of the whole state had it. And around 20% (1 in 5) New York City residents were positive.

So 1 in 5 people in NYC contract this virus and all of a sudden three times as many people as normal are dying, the hospital system is strained, funeral homes are stacking corpses like plywood and parks are being turned into temporary morgues.

I don't live in New York, so maybe I missed it, but is there a time of year where they turn parks into morgues and that's just normal? Maybe sometime after fashion week?  Refrigerated truck week? If that's what happened with 20% imagine the results if 50% had been infected. Sounds pretty serious to me.

 

 

[sothereiwas]

19 minutes ago, gaius said:

Last I heard from the antibody tests, which have a higher chance for false positives than negatives, about 12% of the whole state had it. And around 20% (1 in 5) New York City residents were positive.

I'm just trusting Cuomo in his recent press conference. He said 30%, but either didn't say or I didn't hear if that was city or state. 

[schlumpy]

9 hours ago, gaius said:

I don't live in New York, so maybe I missed it, but is there a time of year where they turn parks into morgues and that's just normal? Maybe sometime after fashion week?  Refrigerated truck week? If that's what happened with 20% imagine the results if 50% had been infected. Sounds pretty serious to me.

This is just a guess on my part but I think the city park morgue was being used for the indigent. Nobody is claiming the body and who knows how long the paperwork takes to get permission to bury them. So it's more likely a class of people represented there then an overall pool of New York society.

In my Humble Opinion.

[gaius]

3 hours ago, schlumpy said:

This is just a guess on my part but I think the city park morgue was being used for the indigent. Nobody is claiming the body and who knows how long the paperwork takes to get permission to bury them. So it's more likely a class of people represented there then an overall pool of New York society.

In my Humble Opinion.

Could be. But indigents die on a regular basis in New York and I've never heard of them having such a problem with corpses before. I think if people want to argue it's not really coronavirus that's killing so many then they have to come up with a good explanation of why there's so many more people than normal dying in New York.

@sothereiwas I don't watch Cuomo's press conferences but I do know the medical people have chronically overestimated the amount of people infected since the very beginning.

There was a good article in the NYTimes this morning about the inaccuracy of antibody tests, that they might be as low as 32% accurate, up to 90%. With the caveat bring the innacuracy falls on the positive results. So at the very most 1 in 5 New Yorkers might have been infected. With the possibility it's really 1 in 10 or 1 in 15. And if the results are disruptive and ugly at 1 in 5 then the potential is a lot more hideous if the rate is actually lower.

[mark clemson]

Although it's not just in the city, NYC has a population of roughly 8 M. So if everyone eventually gets it, and 1% die, we'd expect 80,000 deaths. If 5% required hospitalization, we'd expect 400,000 hospitalizations. Not sure those %s are the right number to use, but it gives you some idea.

For the state (19 M) those (theoretical) numbers would be on the order of 190,000 deaths and 950,000 hospitalizations.

For the US at around 320 M, if everyone eventually gets it, with those %s it would be roughly 3.2 M total deaths and 16 M hospitalizations.

[BC1980]

Well, my dad just texted me and said he got laid off. He'll probably just go ahead and retire because he's 65. He was trying to make it to the end of the year. 15% of the company was laid off.

I expect my contract to change in July, but I'm thankful I still have a job. We're all pretty sure some layoffs are coming in July when our hospital's financial year turns over. Luckily, I work directly in patient care and am about as essential as it gets. It's turned into a miserable job situation since COVID started, but it's a job. Right now, I work 60 hours per pay period but get paid for 80. I'm sure that will change in July. That deal was too good to last forever anyway. 

[gaius]

I'm in Alabama for the first time in a month or two and it's exactly like I remember it. Like no pandemic is going on. Not a whole lot of mask wearing or social distancing.

Despite their reputations Georgia and Florida seem a lot more well behaved. Even when Timshel and I swing by Wal-Mart in Florida almost everyone has mask on. Which is probably why despite lackluster lockdown orders and an influx of diseased New Yorkers it hasn't turned into the disaster it could have.

Edited May 14, 2020 by gaius

[BC1980]

This week, there has been a rise in cases in my county. They couldn't trace it back to any LTC facilities, so it's community spread. We're pretty much completely open in my state, and about half are wearing masks. The issue with me wearing a mask is that it doesn't protect me. It protects other people. So I see no reason to go out and expose myself if other people aren't going to play fair. I'm not interested in rolling the dice on this one. There's still too much we don't know and no real treatments. 
 

My sister's hospital just opened another COVID ICU and peaked on admissions yesterday. My hospital has been on critical diversion for 2 weeks, which means we don't have any critical care beds. I don't know where all of this is headed. I'm trying to slowly accept that life and my job will be different for the next year. 

Edited May 14, 2020 by BC1980

[BC1980]

Something else that surprised me. We need 200 million people to get COVID to achieve herd immunity via infection. If the mortality rate is 0.5%, that means 1 million people would have to die to reach herd immunity absent a vaccine. I guess it just surprised me to see those numbers. 

[Redhead14]

I'm still struggling with the idea that some people have that the lock downs were unnecessary but just about every government on the planet went on lock down.  Why would they do that if it weren't necessary?  What's their explanation for why this happened if the virus isn't that big of a deal?  Every country's government is stupid and wanted to trash their economies?

 

[carhill]

Various....

Oceanside, CA gym owner got popped for violating the ban on gyms. Gets arrested, back out, reopens....

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arrest-gym-owner-defies-health-order-reopens-70691325

Pigs by the thousands being slaughtered, but not for food...

https://www.newser.com/story/290892/his-task-shoot-3k-pigs-in-a-day.html

Texas tattoo parlor opens with armed security, not to protect against criminals, rather government...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/us/coronavirus-businesses-lockdown-guns.html

One of those involved was same person involved in the sheriff MRAP confrontation with a reopened bar and the female beauty salon owner who was arrested and earned over a half million on gofundme. He, his dog and rifle get around.

Lastly, from WA state...

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-to-make-reopening-restaurants-keep-daily-log-of-patron-names-and-contact-information

Quote

A handful of counties in the state were deemed ready for Gov. Jay Inslee’s “phase two” of reopening, allowing restaurants to serve customers at 50% capacity, according to the Seattle Times. Restaurants, however, will need to “create a daily log of customers and maintain that daily log for 30 days, including telephone/email contact information, and time in” in order to accommodate dine-in services, the governor's office said Monday.

 

Edited May 15, 2020 by carhill

[preraph]

I'm just real sick of all this crap. Some of these people are poking their chests out like peacocks just so proud of themselves, as if the very Constitution is on the line. Wouldn't they just suck during wartime.

[Highndry]

1 hour ago, Redhead14 said:

I'm still struggling with the idea that some people have that the lock downs were unnecessary but just about every government on the planet went on lock down.  Why would they do that if it weren't necessary?  What's their explanation for why this happened if the virus isn't that big of a deal?  Every country's government is stupid and wanted to trash their economies?

 

What's even more perplexing is why they would lock it all down when there were less than 100 deaths total, but then open it back when deaths are running 2,000 per day and infections at 30,000. They essentially just threw up their hands and said "let it rip."

Edited May 15, 2020 by Highndry
because I'm foolish and hit "post" too soon

[carhill]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-theodore-roosevelt-sailors-test-positive-after-returning-to-ship-2020-5

Looks like the Roosevelt will remain stuck in Guam as some formerly tested positive and quarantined sailors who were cleared after two negative tests are testing positive after returning to the ship. Some 3000 other sailors have successfully cleared and returned to the vessel.

[Marc878]

NY, Illinois and California need to stay shutdown for a couple years. That’ll fix it

[sothereiwas]

9 minutes ago, Marc878 said:

NY, Illinois and California need to stay shutdown for a couple years.

Just wall them in and declare them federal pens, and be sure to call Kurt. 

[sothereiwas]

19 hours ago, Redhead14 said:

Why would they do that if it weren't necessary?

Because they love power. That's why those in charge got to be in charge. 

Some places probably needed shelter in place orders, notably large urban centers, but having people in the rural areas do the same was almost surely overkill, simply doing what we're now doing in 'Phase 1' from the beginning would have likely be sufficient for most of those places, along with enforcing the shelter in place for the urban centers to prevent them from needlessly contaminating the rurals. 

[Inflikted]

I think, to me, the most frustrating thing about all of this is that it still mostly feels like we're flying blind on so many things. There's so much info we don't know, and while we have some good guidelines (that we know of), it still just feels like there's so much we don't know.

And I get it, I mean, obviously science and research takes time. But it's just so hard to live in a constant state of paranoia, wondering if we're not doing much, or wondering if we're overcompensating in some ways.

On top of that, it doesn't seem like there's any kind of light at the end of the tunnel, not just with progress on a vaccine or cure, but just on any kind of good or positive developments. It just kinda feels like every day leaves us with the same lingering questions and doubts.

[Juha]

Unfortunately locking healthy people in the house does not really accomplish much of anything as

far as amount of people who will get infected or amount of people that will die.

All locking down accomplishes is slowing those numbers down and extending the time span of the virus

Locking healthy people in the house is not a good thing, especially when you look at at the statistics of who this virus affects

The demographics of who dies from this virus, just look at the statistics, it will tell you everything you need to know. 

I am not discounting anything.  Anyone who dies is tragic   

But when you go over the statistics it is quite obvious what the facts are with this and what should be done.

If you are under 50 or even 60 you are pretty much safe, unless you have multiple health issues, then you are at risk.

 

 

[Redhead14]

13 hours ago, Juha said:

Unfortunately locking healthy people in the house does not really accomplish much of anything as

 

 

The problem is that we don't know who is healthy since there are so many walking around who have it but are asymptomatic!  I am treating everyone I come in contact with like Typhoid Mary.  Everyone is potentially a walking weapon. 

[chillii]

Yep exactly. Anyone can get it , any age and anyone can get very very sick from it we've got 2 pro footballers that have nearly died and 6 wks later they still can't walk 100mtrs , any age it all just depends , just because it's not typical doesn't mean a thing with this .

But the biggest thing is that anyone can catch it and pass it on to 100s of people through just one or two to begin with. So hell yeah, it's well worth keeping everyone home until a better idea or vax comes along , or they can just exterminate the damn thing, or something.

Edited May 16, 2020 by chillii