Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[amaysngrace]

Get better inflikted.  

And thank you

[Foxhall]

first signs of light at the end of the tunnel,

with quarantine restrictions - one infected person is infecting one other person,

without restrictions one infected person would be infecting four other people,

that gives hope that with another few weeks of lockdowns, perhaps there can be containment and re-openings by June,

maybe too optimistic- time will tell.

 

[elaine567]

I just read that a new study in China showed 1/3 of  proven positive people have a very low or absent antibody response.
Anti body response increased with age. Older people 65-85 had 3x the antibody response, which could explain the more severe disease in older people.
Anyone with no antibodies could be re-infected...
If there is no real immunity in 1/3 after proven infection then that could be a big problem.

[elaine567]

Today it is reported that more British people have died from Coronavirus in the UK than have died from all military conflicts since 1945.

"Since the end of World War II, 7,185 UK Armed Forces personnel have died as a result of Operations in medal earning theatres."
Coronavirus  10/4/2020  - 7984 have now died

[Foxhall]

the UKs approach initially-herd immunity and so on, was too cavalier and not cancelling some sporting events was reckless ( which had a knock-on effect on ourselves also indeed,)

if they had moved to restrict sooner, there would not have been so many fatalities (still always easy in hindsight I suppose)

contrastingly the approach of Australia and New Zealand shows with decisive action how the virus can be controlled, how well New Zealand in particular have done in limiting cases and deaths.

 

[elaine567]

It's not really rocket science;
Viruses are contagious, deadly viruses kill people.
They still don't really get it.
Until you stop every opportunity the virus has to spread, then it is going to spread.
We allowed every man and his dog into the UK, we did minimal testing and minimal tracing when there was a hope of containing it.
We are now trading personal liberty for people's lives.
All "everyone" can talk about is getting out of and "getting round" the lock down. 
It is a joke, only its not...
Some people are putting their lives on the line, others don't give a damn

[Ellener]

58 minutes ago, Foxhall said:

always easy in hindsight I suppose

yes, it is. 

It's that old adage about when someone is lost don't tell them they should not have come this way! Help figure out the way forward instead... 

1 hour ago, elaine567 said:

Today it is reported that more British people have died from Coronavirus in the UK than have died from all military conflicts since 1945.

 

That's an interesting comparison but more people die globally from suicide every year than all the other violent deaths globally that year ( including conflicts ) added together. 800 000 a year, and for each death it is estimated there are @ 20 attempts at suicide or self-harm.

Interesting facts and figures, but not really relevant or useful except to highlight- we are all becoming way more aware of people's suffering and dying around the world since the pandemic.

 

[elaine567]

I think many people do not really relate to suicide as it is a "choice".
Suicide has always been around,
Viral deaths are not the norm, they are not a "choice", they are "extra", they are extra-ordinary.
People taken before their time...

[gaius]

They reopened the subway in Wuhan  a few days ago after a 65 day shutdown of the entire service. Currently to ride you're required to wear a mask, have at least one empty seat between you and any other passenger and every rider gets their temperature taken before being allowed to board. And that's with new cases in the city being reduced to one every few days.

Meanwhile in New York, which is currently in the midst of a major outbreak, the subway is packed like a cattle car, you're not required to wear a mask nor have your temperature taken. And anyone riding that subway is free to leave New York at any time and travel anywhere in the US they want.

Yeah, we're going to get this contained in no time. 

 

Edited April 10, 2020 by gaius

[Ellener]

5 hours ago, elaine567 said:

I think many people do not really relate to suicide as it is a "choice".
Suicide has always been around,
Viral deaths are not the norm, they are not a "choice", they are "extra", they are extra-ordinary.
People taken before their time...

My point was really to say- comparing various death statistics is meaningless, many people are 'taken before their time'.

Viral deaths are not a 'choice' no, but they are very much a human norm. And bacterial deaths will become so too again if we don't address antibiotic resistance.

We can't ignore this current outbreak because even if we personally don't get sick or even know anyone else who does- the economics and practicalities are affecting us all; plus in the modern media era we are witnessing and analysing it all as it happens. We are finally shocked en masse.

If this had stayed in a corner of China ( like H7N7 in 2013 ) I doubt we would even be thinking about pandemics, though scientists and doctors have been talking about the risk for years, and there have been three other global pandemics since 1918 with deaths of 1 million respectively ( 1957 and 1968  ) and 0.3 million ( H1N1, 2009 )

Whether we return to complacency when this subsides remains to be seen.

 

 

 

 

[Philosopher]

With this pandemic too many countries were far too laid back in dealing with it in the initial stages of their outbreaks, which is probably why it has spread as badly as it has. China tried to suppress news of the outbreak in the first few weeks and as a result failed to contain it in those precious early weeks. If they had got their act together in December instead of late January, then the whole globe would likely have been spared this calamity.

Most western countries did not take the threat seriously enough until it was too late.  At the end of February when major outbreaks in Italy, South Korea and Iran had begun it should have been obvious that this needed to be taken seriously, but they continued to procrastinate. The UK government for example downplayed the threat in January and February, then gave up trying to tracing and testing contacts of those who where infected in early March. The UK government only really got their act together in mid March, by which time it was too late to prevent a major outbreak here.

The only countries that seemed to have dealt with it well are Asian countries such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, that have learnt the lessons from SARS and MERS. New Zealand also seems to have dealt with it well by closing its borders and implementing a lockdown at the first signs of community spread.

[SincereOnlineGuy]

12 hours ago, Philosopher said:

With this pandemic too many countries were far too laid back in dealing with it in the initial stages of their outbreaks, which is probably why it has spread as badly as it has. China tried to suppress news of the outbreak in the first few weeks and as a result failed to contain it in those precious early weeks. If they had got their act together in December instead of late January, then the whole globe would likely have been spared this calamity.

That sums it up.

 

 

[Ellener]

13 hours ago, Philosopher said:

China tried to suppress news of the outbreak in the first few weeks

did they? I knew about it weeks before it became relevant to us, and assumed it was like H7N7 and would stay in China. I didn't think so many people even travelled to and from China to be honest.

[Ellener]

Here are dates relating to the first documented cases according toe LiveScience Research Publications https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html

Haven't found the source of that info but Wikipedia says 'The origin is unknown but by December 2019 the spread of infection was almost entirely driven by human-to-human transmission.'

( ie doesn't need an animal host )

Wiki also notes 'After the initial outbreak of COVID-19, conspiracy theories, misinformation and disinformation emerged regarding the origin, scale, prevention, treatment and other aspects of the disease and rapidly spread online'.

[elaine567]

7 minutes ago, Ellener said:

did they? I knew about it weeks before it became relevant to us, and assumed it was like H7N7 and would stay in China. I didn't think so many people even travelled to and from China to be honest.

Chinese New Year didn't help...

[gaius]

42 minutes ago, Ellener said:

did they? I knew about it weeks before it became relevant to us, and assumed it was like H7N7 and would stay in China. I didn't think so many people even travelled to and from China to be honest.

This thread started back around the end of January after there had been concerning news articles about the virus for a week or two. They just tracked the seeding of the virus in New York to mid February. So everyone in the US had plenty of time and notice. They just didn't pay much attention or misread the situation. And now try to blame China instead of admitting they dropped the ball.

 

 

[gaius]

Probably the most destructive byproduct of the rush to blame China in an effort to distract from individual incompetence is that it makes it less likely we'll learn from the things they've done to put an end to the spread there.

For example, how they're managing the re-opened subway in Wuhan is leagues and leagues ahead of how New York is doing it. Temperature checks, masks required, they even have automated sensors that can pick out someone with a fever if they somehow slip by the guy with the thermometer. Vs New York who is running reduced service so everyone is packed in and almost guaranteed to contract the virus if someone on their car is infected.

But still, nobody is really paying attention.

 

[elaine567]

The Uk Govt is so incompetent that Turkey felt the need to send us a consignment of the PPE we are severely lacking, accompanied by poems.

Matt Hancock the Health secretary made a bit of a  faux pas when he told NHS workers "We need everyone to treat PPE like the precious resource it is,” he said on Friday. “Everyone should use the equipment they clinically need, in line with the guidelines: no more and no less.”
When they have had to put their lives in danger due to little or no PPE for months...
What did he think they were they going to do with it - party????

Edited April 10, 2020 by elaine567

[Ellener]

54 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

accompanied by poems.

I love poetry! Hope it helped someone 

Gifts from Erdogan, another despot...what is this world coming to.

57 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

"We need everyone to treat PPE like the precious resource it is,”

This is exactly what happened when gloves were introduced instead of hand-washing some years ago in nuring homes, people were initially trained to change them between patients/tasks, then the cost aspect came up and staff were given vague directives like this one which leads to questionable hygiene practices  

[Philosopher]

 

10 hours ago, Ellener said:

did they? I knew about it weeks before it became relevant to us, and assumed it was like H7N7 and would stay in China. I didn't think so many people even travelled to and from China to be honest.

The Chinese doctor Li Wenliang was accused of spreading rumours when he said on social media there were patients with a SARS like coronavirus in his hospital in Wuhan.  Other doctors were similarly accused of spreading rumours. So while the authorities clearly knew about this virus at the start of January it does seem they did not want the population knowing about it. To be fair to the Chinese government, it may be that it was the Wuhan authorities rather then the Chinese government to blame here.

[Ellener]

4 hours ago, Philosopher said:

 

The Chinese doctor Li Wenliang was accused of spreading rumours when he said on social media there were patients with a SARS like coronavirus in his hospital in Wuhan.  Other doctors were similarly accused of spreading rumours. So while the authorities clearly knew about this virus at the start of January it does seem they did not want the population knowing about it. To be fair to the Chinese government, it may be that it was the Wuhan authorities rather then the Chinese government to blame here.

Repressive regimes create an air of secrecy and blame I guess. But we did know about it, within a few days. Very difficult to keep anything quiet in the modern era.

[Philosopher]

2 hours ago, Ellener said:

Repressive regimes create an air of secrecy and blame I guess. But we did know about it, within a few days. Very difficult to keep anything quiet in the modern era.

Even if the Chinese authorities in December and early January where downplaying the extent or severity of the outbreak, the governments of rich nations you would have thought would have had a more true picture of the threat this posed from their intelligence gathering. 

[poppyfields]

On 4/9/2020 at 9:05 PM, gaius said:

Meanwhile in New York, which is currently in the midst of a major outbreak, the subway is packed like a cattle car, you're not required to wear a mask nor have your temperature taken. And anyone riding that subway is free to leave New York at any time and travel anywhere in the US they want.

 

I heard that too gaius, I have friends in New York.

It's unconscionable to me that this is happening, there have been 7,800 deaths in New York alone!  And increasing every day.  

Yet this is still happening?  Boggles the mind.

I read something about it being nothing short of involuntary manslaughter on the city's part, and do expect at least a few lawsuits to be filed because of this.

Unbelievable! 

Edited April 11, 2020 by poppyfields

[preraph]

Dallas mayor provides transparency virus numbers and stats every single day as well as a map showing which zip codes are most affected.  We have been highest in the state, starting out, but now stats show we are having a good healthy cure rate, which is great news.  Of course, still such a small sample of people have been tested.  But our deaths dropped off some this week.  And now where they're having no slowing of the curve are the border towns, no surprise.  So still a lot of people testing positive, but we're still at about half our capacity for beds, ventilators, etc.  And cure rate looking encouraging.  

 

You know, one thing that worries me, though, is that I already have all the chronic copd which on me is chronic bronchitis, every day.  And in the past when the doc was trying to control it with antibiotics, he kept giving me Zpack, which is one of the two drugs given for this virus, and I always told him it doesn't work on me, but the always said it's specifically for this.  So I'm not confident at all that it would help me since it never seemed to in the past (plus makes me really sick, but I can stand that.)  

 

My childhood doc thought I was allergic to penicillin when young, but I wasn't, so I have barely ever had penicillin, and if it does any good at all, it would be a good one to give me since I have not used it much.  

[elaine567]

Zpack and penicillin do not work against viruses.
If you have a bacterial infection over the top of the viral infection then you may be given an antibiotic to clear the bacterial infection.