Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[justwhoiam]

INFO FROM ITALY

- Italy is testing the antiviral remdesivir (previously used for ebola) on patients in ICU (this is "compassionate use", which means not approved through clinical trial yet)

- Italy is on the front line with the use of tocilizumab too, approved for rheumatoid arthritis (it was used in China too); this is one of the three new clinical trials approved by AIFA (Italian Medicines Agency)

- The other two clinical trials are with sarilumab and two biological drugs called emapalumab and anakinra

- AIFA approved the use - under particular circumstances - of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine (both previously used for malaria), and lopinavir and ritonavir (for HIV)

- There's concern about the efficacy and safety of the Japanese antiflu drug favipiravir (also known as avigan), which is not approved in Europe and USA; AIFA is evaluating several studies on it

- There are over 35 Covid 19 candidate vaccines around the world: the first one tested on humans took place in the USA

- In May, we'll have the first results from preclinical tests of 5 Italian vaccines and in the fall testing on humans might take place

- For ebola, the first year of trial didn't lead to any discovery

- The current impression is that some drugs work in some subgroups of patients but not in others, so this is being investigated

[littleblackheart]

2 hours ago, NuevoYorko said:

There seems to be zero movement towards the availability of widespread testing to identify asymptomatic people or those carrying antibodies, so we'll still be winging it insofar as spreading the virus is concerned.   

 

That's what I find the most indicative of how skewed our priorities have been in terms of funding our health services / research + not having a sound enough social system to enable us to press the pause button on 'the economy' without the disastrous consequences we now are witnessing. In places where they did do research on asymptomatic carriers (l put a link upthread about the research done by Padua University), the link is clear, but even the non-virologists among us can tell that going blind on the data with no widespread testing is short-sighted.

In early March, when the virus came to Europe, I actually genuinely trusted our gvts to follow in SK's footsteps by immediately pouring money into purchasing / ordering tests. I naively had some faith that our gvts had our backs... How sad is that.

You're probably right in that 'we' will have learned nothing from this short-term and yet again, we'll have to rely on future generations to clear up 'our' mess.

Edited April 2, 2020 by littleblackheart

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, littleblackheart said:

yet again, we'll have to rely on future generations to clear up 'our' mess.

Let's hope we've raised 'em right then! 

[littleblackheart]

1 hour ago, elaine567 said:

No-one actually knows that as yet.

You don't have to believe my friend as I do (entirely fair enough - why should you), but there have been a few peer-reviewed papers on preliminary research on this that are readily available online (I posted a link from the Guardian upthread somewhere on one of the studies).

[elaine567]

@littleblackheart Yes, there are a few studies and they vary in their conclusions.

That study you quoted upthread showed out of 90 positive people in Vo, 6 were asymptomatic... 
 

[littleblackheart]

@elaine567Yes, the study I quoted was about the role of asymptomatic carriers, not the %.

For data on %, google 'Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020' 

Kenji Mizumoto, Katsushi Kagaya, Alexander Zarebski,Gerardo Chowell 

peer-reviewed, open access on Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar 12; 25(10): 2000180 (ECDC).

There are others. No-one knows anything for sure anyway, so we kind of have to trust the data we currently have.

Edited April 2, 2020 by littleblackheart

[elaine567]

Asymptomatic positive people on the Diamond Princess made up 18% not 30%. 

[jah526]

1 hour ago, Redhead14 said:

"They" were telling us that it was spread by someone when they cough the droplets out into the air and having them linger it the air to be breathed in and by touching surfaces.  Now "they" are saying that it's spread by simply talking and breathing not projectiled and that's a lot different and significantly worse.

I asked a question about that the other day. I thought that must be the case, since it seems to be spread so easily, and it's not that often you are coughed at or sneezed at within 6 ft (at least, not in my experience). I decided to go pick up at the grocery store yesterday, and was really not happy that I had to roll down the window a ways because the attendant was trying to ask me a question. They had told me on the phone that I wouldn't have to have any interaction. Anyway, I suppose it was better than the others I saw who had their windows rolled all the way down, or were hopping out to help the attendant load bags. I get it that as Americans, we are taught to be congenial and helpful, but in this case it would be better to try to go against our nature.

Edited April 2, 2020 by jah526

[littleblackheart]

21 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

Asymptomatic positive people on the Diamond Princess made up 18% not 30%

I don't know why you want to argue this with me. I said this % was from my medics friend, who is on the frontline and knows better than me. If you want to be right on this, I can put you in touch and you can discuss your own expertise with her?

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by littleblackheart

[Ellener]

Why people react psychologically as they do to the pandemic was discussed in a BBC article yesterday:

 

'Anything that reduces the risk of infection in the first place should therefore have offered a distinct survival advantage. For this reason, we evolved a set of unconscious psychological responses – which Schaller has termed the “behavioural immune system” – to act as a first line of defence to reduce our contact with potential pathogens.

The disgust response is one of the most obvious components of the behavioural immune system. When we avoid things that smell bad or food that we believe to be unclean, we are instinctively trying to steer clear of potential contagion. Just the merest suggestion that we have already eaten something rotten can lead us to vomit, expelling the food before the infection has had the chance to take root. Research suggests that we also tend to more strongly remember material that triggers disgust, allowing us to remember (and avoid) the situations that could put us at risk of infection later on.

Since humans are a social species that evolved to live in big groups, the behavioural immune system also modified our interactions with people to minimise the spread of disease, leading to a kind of instinctive social distancing.

These responses can be quite crude, since our ancestors would have had no understanding of the specific causes of each disease or the way they were transmitted. “The behavioural immune system operates on a ‘better safe than sorry’ logic,” says Lene Aarøe at Aarhus University in Denmark. This means the responses are often misplaced, and may be triggered by irrelevant information – altering our moral decision making and political opinions on issues that have nothing to do with the current threat.'

So people will want to try to enforce their own instinctive 'better safe than sorry logic' based on their understanding or perception at the time. Or emotional state too I guess.

 

[SumGuy]

3 hours ago, Redhead14 said:

"They" were telling us that it was spread by someone when they cough the droplets out into the air and having them linger it the air to be breathed in and by touching surfaces.  Now "they" are saying that it's spread by simply talking and breathing not projectiled and that's a lot different and significantly worse.

It's spread by both...again just like most any respiratory bacteria or virus...coughs is just, far, far worse.  I'm not sure who "they" are, it has been said since at least end of February, probably earlier, that asymptomatic (i.e. no cough) spreading occurs...by "being said" I mean doctors and epidemiologists.   That it can be spread by being in close proximity to a person means it is airborne...which arises from breathing, talking, etc.  That is why social distancing was called for.  

I can't off the top of my head think of the news agencies that were reporting this as of March 1, likely Reuters, unlikely FOX as of that time I think they were still calling it a hoax.  There is no excuse for governments not to know, they have whole agencies devoted to this stuff.  Of course knowing and telling your people are two different things, and being told and listening are also two different things.

[Libby1]

3 hours ago, Ellener said:

It's surreal here today, there are gardeners wandering around all over the estate doing the grass and leaf-blowing, despite the shut down. Maybe they are deemed essential business, I don't know, but I wish they'd f- off. They're sending up piles of dust and fumes and making a lot of noise. And clearly associating in larger groups than we've been asked.

I'd ban noisy things like leaf-blowers anyway, it's such a zen thing to do in comparison, sweep with a broom...

 

I would ban them too.  They're like a bit "Eff you" to the environment.  Ridiculously polluting things, noisy - and a lot of time and gas wasted as these idiots chase stray leaves around that could be swept up in a second with a broom.  When there's a pandemic that causes serious respiratory problems on the go, it's utterly irresponsible for anybody to be using these things.

[SumGuy]

3 hours ago, elaine567 said:

No-one actually knows that as yet.

I believe there is data on asymptomatic carriers from the extensive testing done in South Korea and small scale data from the cruise ships.  So we do have some good information on this.  There is also the fact that the vast majority of those in the US who have it they have not been able to trace the origin to contact with a known symptomatic person.  This could be do to several reasons, bad memory, acquiring it form a surface, and/or an asymptomatic carrier.  So what we do know is it is being spread in someway that does not require contact with an obviously sick person.

[Azincourt]

4 hours ago, simpycurious said:

even a private beach?  I get that for public beaches but not for a private beach.  

No Speedo's Azin, they are just creepy stick with the board shorts and rock the abs 

in all seriousness hopefully you can get to the beach soon 

nah, it 's a complete lockdown in Europe. We can get out of the house to go buy bread, food, medication, take hygienic walks, take the dog out, joggers can still get out, if they are jogging by themselves. Beaches are completely empty, with the authorities making sure about it.

Wouldn't surprise me to see a bunch of lazy people pick up jogging so they have an excuse to get out of the house for a few. Let's just hope they won't have a heart attack.

Not sure about private beaches, but I think in these times even those private beaches aren't allowed to have anyone.

Quote

It seems kind of weird to wear a stylish, girly dress - most of my new outfits are pretty, professional dresses - relaxing in the house. But sure, maybe it would be fun 

I haven't left the house since december. I still shave my on the daily,  shower everyday, and wear pretty little things. No one sees me except me, but hey that's the most important person in the world so of course I'm going to pretty myself up!

Edited April 2, 2020 by Azincourt

[Azincourt]

1 minute ago, SumGuy said:

I believe there is data on asymptomatic carriers from the extensive testing done in South Korea and small scale data from the cruise ships.  So we do have some good information on this.  There is also the fact that the vast majority of those in the US who have it they have not been able to trace the origin to contact with a known symptomatic person.  This could be do to several reasons, bad memory, acquiring it form a surface, and/or an asymptomatic carrier.  So what we do know is it is being spread in someway that does not require contact with an obviously sick person.

Yeah, man. It's scary. They think that there are a lot more people infected with it without knowing they're infected in the first place because they show  no sympthoms.   I guess those people are not going to suffer from it, since they're healthy, but there's lot of people they can spread it without meaning to, who are going to suffer a lot from it.

Don't touch anything if you don't have to, wear gloves, use face mask when going out. Heck, if I was the guy I'd buy an haz mat suit. If they sold them at supermarkets or something lol.

[simpycurious]

Azin, how about if you own a boat can you access it there and at least get out on the water?  Obviously, you are way away from people. I get public beaches being 

restricted but a private beach surely not.  I am definitely PRO and very good hygiene virus or no virus 

[SumGuy]

1 hour ago, elaine567 said:

Asymptomatic positive people on the Diamond Princess made up 18% not 30%. 

Fair enough, what was the age and health distribution?  I imagine that the average age on a cruise is up.  18% is still pretty frightening to me, almost 1 in 5 who have could not now and be spreading it.

[gaius]

14 hours ago, basil67 said:

There are also world leaders who don't/didn't take this seriously.   If the leaders are saying it's all going to go away, it's no surprise that some people believe them.  

When mixed messages abound, people will believe different things.

In order of blame I would put the public health officials first, by a wide margin, followed by the politicians in second place. Simply because most politicians aren't experts in this stuff and expect the officials advising them to know what they're talking about, which they clearly don't in this case.

It would have been nice if the general population was more informed and had demanded action but they probably come in third in the blame hierarchy.

Since tarring and feathering is considered barbaric nowadays we should at least sack most of the public health officials and strip them of their licenses to practice medicine. Especially since they're now trying to blame China for their own incompetency.

[basil67]

@gaius  I can think of three leaders who are/were dismissing the recommendations of health officials. And I’m sure there were more in countries I am not aware of. 

Are you gonna sack the medicos of countries who have leaders who ignore advice?

Edited April 2, 2020 by basil67

[chillii]

26 minutes ago, SumGuy said:

It's spread by both...again just like most any respiratory bacteria or virus...coughs is just, far, far worse.  I'm not sure who "they" are, it has been said since at least end of February, probably earlier, that asymptomatic (i.e. no cough) spreading occurs...by "being said" I mean doctors and epidemiologists.   That it can be spread by being in close proximity to a person means it is airborne...which arises from breathing, talking, etc.  That is why social distancing was called for.  

I can't off the top of my head think of the news agencies that were reporting this as of March 1, likely Reuters, unlikely FOX as of that time I think they were still calling it a hoax.  There is no excuse for governments not to know, they have whole agencies devoted to this stuff.  Of course knowing and telling your people are two different things, and being told and listening are also two different things.

 

Doesn't matter what any of them say on how it can be spread though, that'll just keep changing , except that of course anything that can help people to know at least the biggies so that hopefully they'll just stop doing them , is better than nothing.

But really , the safest way for us in this is for everyone is to just assume it can spread anyway anyhow it pleases and act accordingly to that , assume it all , it's just common sense, l hate assumptions and needing to live so paranoid but in this case it's the best bet imo.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by chillii

[Tamfana]

10 minutes ago, gaius said:

In order of blame I would put the public health officials first, by a wide margin, followed by the politicians in second place. Simply because most politicians aren't experts in this stuff and expect the officials advising them to know what they're talking about, which they clearly don't in this case.

Gosh, I'd say the opposite.  Public health professionals have been clear and accurate thus far.  

[Ellener]

1 hour ago, gaius said:

In order of blame

is there any point assigning 'blame'? There are 1001 people to blame: in the US CDC workers and researchers were cut to the bone because the administration deemed them unneccessary, there have been calls for years to end the sale and consumption of 'exotic' meats, some people even experts will use it as an career-boosting-excuse to get on tv and spread info which isn't even info at this point just unhelpful speculation...etc etc etc.

Even if we can pinpoint 'blame' it's not really the moment to do it, in the middle of the actual infection.

Assume it's contagious, stay away from others as much as possible, wash hands, don't panic and hope for the best?! That's what I'm doing...

Edited April 2, 2020 by Ellener
spelling

[Tamfana]

Just now, Ellener said:

is there any pont assigning 'blame'?

To a limited extent, yes.  People who have screwed up on something that harms others shouldn't be (1) believed any more or (2) in charge any more.  

[chillii]

Yeah , that's all we can do really , hope for the best. But l mean medical fields , they're doing their best you can bet on that , thank the God's we have them l say , but of course the posts keep shifting , and shifting , and shifting , that's just how it goes when they're trying to figure something out . It still keeps shifting weekly even with say cancers and all kinds of other things yet how long have they been studying and trying with those. Hopefully though with this one being so huge and urgent , someone will nail something , really soon .

Edited April 2, 2020 by chillii

[Azincourt]

15 minutes ago, basil67 said:

@gaius  I can think of three leaders who are/were dismissing the recommendations of health officials. And I’m sure there were more in countries I am not aware of. 

Are you gonna sack the medicos of countries who have leaders who ignore advice?

How about sacking the leaders who ignore the advice from professionals who've worked in the field for decades and decades?

Quote

Azin, how about if you own a boat can you access it there and at least get out on the water?  Obviously, you are way away from people. I get public beaches being 

restricted but a private beach surely not.  I am definitely PRO and very good hygiene virus or no virus 

 

The boat still needs to be moored at the harbor, and the harbors are closed for everyone.

Quote

is there any point assigning 'blame'? There are 1001 people to blame: in the US CDC workers and researchers were cut to the bone because the administration deemed them unneccessary, there have been calls for years to end the sale and consumption of 'exotic' meats, some people even experts will use it as an career-boosting-excuse to get on tv and spread info which isn't even info at this point just unhelpful speculation...etc etc etc.

Quote

 

Yes, there is any point assigning blame. So that the people who could've prevented this from reaching the states and doing what it's doing, don't win the re-elections. But you can't really expect a silver-spoon baby to ever take responsability in his life.

Edited April 2, 2020 by Azincourt