Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

[Ellener]

There are short videos made by patients and nurses and of ER rooms on the BBC website.

 

[pepperbird]

2 hours ago, Inflikted said:

So, realistically, what's the best case, most likely scenario, at this point?

I mean, assuming a vaccine is still 18 months out, what is everyone supposed to do until then? I don't really see how we can all stay locked down for 18 months, but if we don't, there's not much controlling the virus, right? I don't disagree that trying to force everything to reopen by Easter is a bit too hasty, but even if we stay locked down through April and May, will that really matter much? Once we come out after the curve flattens, the virus will just start spreading again, won't it?

Granted, I suppose these are questions for people in power, rather than random people on a niche internet forum to be able to answer. I just wonder, is all.

I've talked to my dad about this. He has a background in infectious diseases/mycology/microbiology, and has done some consulting with the CDC,
I'm just reporting his views. I don't know if they are valid or not.

The numbers coming indicate that the virus at mostly dangerous to those who are elderly and also have health issues. There are a few "outliers", but younger, healthy people seem, for the most part, to be okay.

A vaccine is not available, and may not be for some time to come. It could be that governments may have to begin looking at the possibility of allowing communities to "return to near normal" while taking steps to protect those most at risk. If this disease does confer immunity, "herd immunity" it may be the only way to protect the vulnerable, at least for now. It may even be the vaccine isn't safe for those at high risk anyway. I know there's a lot of them I can't get.

In a way, it may have to become similar to the way other viral communicable diseases are. We had to learn to live with them until vaccines were found.

[justwhoiam]

5 hours ago, Libby1 said:

My impression was that from January, governments (our one in the UK at least) were looking at this virus as something that was to be slowed up rather than completely contained

In the UK, the idea was: let's have as many people as possible infected. Herd's immunity. Remember? The rest of the world remembers. Only country in the world coming up with that solution for its population.

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there was also a strong emphasis on avoiding panic

Even being slow at reacting, even with the total U-turn UK took, we saw panic in the British population. Sometimes it's not about what you say, but more about what you do that starts the panic. And I guess that was the case for the UK.

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intelligent, educated people of my acquaintance made no preparation for this, and I don't understand why.  The information on the severity of this virus was available weeks ago, but for some reason a lot of people were entrenched in denial that it was going to cause any problems in their area.

We got used to seeing anything on TV and think it's far from us. As such, it's not gonna hit us. This will be a lesson for everybody. Denial is also a survival mode for some.

[Els]

3 hours ago, Inflikted said:

So, realistically, what's the best case, most likely scenario, at this point?

I mean, assuming a vaccine is still 18 months out, what is everyone supposed to do until then? I don't really see how we can all stay locked down for 18 months, but if we don't, there's not much controlling the virus, right? I don't disagree that trying to force everything to reopen by Easter is a bit too hasty, but even if we stay locked down through April and May, will that really matter much? Once we come out after the curve flattens, the virus will just start spreading again, won't it?

Granted, I suppose these are questions for people in power, rather than random people on a niche internet forum to be able to answer. I just wonder, is all.

The incubation period is <14 days, so if everyone really does practice social distancing for a month, it will be over because the last person in the country with the virus would have recovered (or otherwise).

Realistically speaking not everyone will, unfortunately, but even then the whole point of flattening the curve is that the number of people needing ventilators stays within the capacity of the hospitals.

Some of the measures will be long-term I think. I don't expect travel restrictions to be lifted for months unfortunately.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Elswyth

[justwhoiam]

4 hours ago, Tamfana said:

Very cool!  

Here's a great idea for a neighborhood party

Bad idea. Too many people in the street. Especially the elderly. These people are a month behind in understanding how this virus works. If Buffalo started having 600 deaths a day, then you'd see a behavioral change.

[elaine567]

In 1918, complete lock down as a method of stopping the virus was discarded in favour of "carrying on", in order not to interfere with  the war effort.
We don't learn, this  time it was "the economy" that prevented the UK/US from nailing this virus when they still could.
In 1918 the first wave Spring 1918 killed the very young, the very old, and the infirm.
The "weak" basically.
The second wave Autumn/Winter 1918 started killing the 25-35yo demographic too.
The strong and fit.
The W curve.
The third wave Spring 1919 did the same...
Millions upon millions died.

[justwhoiam]

1 hour ago, Libby1 said:

even though this virus isn't likely to kill them, it could still put them through some serious s*** and leave them with reduced lung function for some time afterwards.

Not to mention we don't know the effects of the drug mix their using... Doctors are basically experimenting on patients.

[Piddy]

14 minutes ago, elaine567 said:

In 1918, complete lock down as a method of stopping the virus was discarded in favour of "carrying on", in order not to interfere with  the war effort.
We don't learn, this  time it was "the economy" that prevented the UK/US from nailing this virus when they still could.
In 1918 the first wave Spring 1918 killed the very young, the very old, and the infirm.
The "weak" basically.
The second wave Autumn/Winter 1918 started killing the 25-35yo demographic too.
The strong and fit.
The W curve.
The third wave Spring 1919 did the same...
Millions upon millions died.

Also,  in 1918 Philadelphia went ahead with some sort of parade I believe and it spread and they had a lot more deaths.  St. Louis on the other hand reacted differently and had less deaths.  We always forget history and are constantly repeating the mistakes.

[Libby1]

1 hour ago, justwhoiam said:

In the UK, the idea was: let's have as many people as possible infected. Herd's immunity. Remember? The rest of the world remembers. Only country in the world coming up with that solution for its population.

Even being slow at reacting, even with the total U-turn UK took, we saw panic in the British population. Sometimes it's not about what you say, but more about what you do that starts the panic. And I guess that was the case for the UK.

We got used to seeing anything on TV and think it's far from us. As such, it's not gonna hit us. This will be a lesson for everybody. Denial is also a survival mode for some.

Yeah. Other than reading up on the rules about lockdown (most of which I was  already doing) I haven't paid a huge amount of attention to the governmental advice or strategies on this matter.  I work on the assumption that both will be inadequate - and that even if they weren't, British people would ignore them and do their own thing, which means being extra careful...though there's a part of me that feels getting it sooner or later is inevitable.

The panic stuff, especially the panic shopping, is a result of too many people having their head in the sand or up their own asses over this pandemic with the result that they didn't do any proper thinking and planning in the lead up when there was no shortage of anything in the shops.  Then suddenly they find themselves in the midst of the crisis they never believed would happen and buy a ton more stuff than they actually need. Depriving others in the process, and they'll probably end up throwing a lot of it out (eg perishable items).

[Happy Lemming]

A relative of my girlfriend passed away, recently.  It was natural causes and was expected (not related to the Coronavirus).  Her daughter is doing a virtual funeral (Monday) on "Zoom" so everyone can pay their respects and still social distance/shelter in place. 

I recently set up "Zoom" on my computer for my girlfriend to use with her doctor, but now she can attend the virtual funeral, as well.

[CautiouslyOptimistic]

32 minutes ago, Happy Lemming said:

A relative of my girlfriend passed away, recently.  It was natural causes and was expected (not related to the Coronavirus).  Her daughter is doing a virtual funeral (Monday) on "Zoom" so everyone can pay their respects and still social distance/shelter in place. 

I recently set up "Zoom" on my computer for my girlfriend to use with her doctor, but now she can attend the virtual funeral, as well.

That is so sad, HL :(.  To have to use Zoom for that :(.  

[lana-banana]

My sister has been reassigned to her hospital's COVID-19 unit. I'm not too worried about her; she's amazing and tough as nails, but she has a 1-year-old and a 3-year-old. It just sucks.

My friend's husband is a doctor at a very prestigious hospital and he's also working the COVID-19 unit (honestly, everyone at a hospital will end up doing it; it's only a matter of time). Despite the esteem of this hospital, there's no PPE outside the ICU and doctors are being urged to wear reusable masks and bandannas. It's an outrage. Greatest nation my ass. 

[Happy Lemming]

2 minutes ago, CautiouslyOptimistic said:

That is so sad, HL :(.  To have to use Zoom for that :(.  

It is very sad... but it's better than nothing. 

I just hope I have everything set up correctly on this end.  I've done the "test" with the speakers, webcam and microphone, so it should work.

I'm just glad I had this old webcam and microphone in stock from the days when I used "Skype" for a job I had (many years ago).  I had shoved it all in a box.  Luckily, Logitech had the drivers/software on-line for the webcam, as I couldn't find the install CD.

[justwhoiam]

3 hours ago, Happy Lemming said:

It was natural causes

You know, those are wild guesses. My partner lost his mother, he asked for her to be tested, but they refused. Death was declared from natural causes. But I guess without Covid 19, she would have lived longer. Without a test, you can't really know. With Covid 19, you mainly die from respiratory failure. With "natural causes", you stop breathing.

I heard other cases. Some people are dying and not tested.

Edited March 29, 2020 by justwhoiam

[simpycurious]

Just now, justwhoiam said:

You know, those are wild guesses. My partner lost his mother, he asked for her to be tested, but they refused. Death was declared by natural causes. But I guess without Covid 19, she would have lived longer. Without a test, you can't really know. With Covid 19, you mainly die for respiratory failure. With "natural causes", you stop breathing.

I heard other cases. Some people are dying and not tested.

That's also sad and Happy's story is sad.  

[carhill]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Also, broken down by state.

[justwhoiam]

29 minutes ago, carhill said:

U.S. stats... Also, broken down by state.

Very interesting. The death rate projection for March 28 was 380-508: it was 525. Deaths could exceed 5,000 per day in 16 days.

[carhill]

From John's Hopkins, a comparison:

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COVID-19: Approximately 31,734 deaths reported worldwide; 2,191 deaths in the U.S., as of Mar. 29, 2020.*

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

If the projections from the prior link play out:

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Total COVID-19 deaths projected to August 4, 2020 in United States of America

81,114COVID-19 deaths

It'll be higher than a historical bad flu season by ~32% + the typical flu fatalities, this season apparently a bit lighter than normal. Of course, separating out COD's can be problematical for non confirmed cases unless all are researched.

[Happy Lemming]

9 hours ago, justwhoiam said:

You know, those are wild guesses.

Not in this case, she had a long drawn out debilitating illness.  Her heart finally gave out, it was very much expected.

This was not a case of coronavirus.

[gaius]

On 3/28/2020 at 8:05 AM, pepperbird said:

Why did it take so long for countries (beyond China) to react?

The west, the US especially, has become fairly incapable in the last few decades at dealing with "new" problems. If there's not an obvious and ironclad parallel from the 60's or 70's it's highly likely it won't be analyzed or dealt with on a competent level.

All the liberals are having fun bashing Trump right now and he certainly deserves it. But what they're conveniently forgetting is that in the early stages of this pandemic the only thing liberal news sites were talking about was how wrong China was for enforcing travel restrictions, how quarantines have a long and racist history. How we instead needed a civil rights based approach to the problem that focused on education. Well, they got what they wanted and now we're about to become the new epicenter of the pandemic.

This kind of poor thinking has been going on extensively for a while but when you're a wealthy nation you can be moronic and usually get away with it. Not when something like a pandemic comes to town though.

 

[Azincourt]

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TEEN TRAGEDY

Schoolboy, 14, dies after testing positive for coronavirus in Portugal

 

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A 14-year-old Portuguese boy is thought to have become the youngest person in Europe to die after contracting coronavirus. The teenager, from Ovar, south of Porto, suffered from the skin disorder and autoimmune disease psoriasis, said local reports.

 

 

 

[gaius]

Oh and by the way, all that stuff our "experts" have been saying about not bothering with face masks, how they're not effective, now that the "experts" sat down and actually thought about it for a while, it turn's out they might be effective after all. Even those regular surgical masks. Even more effective than washing your hands 10 times a day.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/experts-question-advice-against-face-mask-use-coronavirus.html

 

[Happy Lemming]

36 minutes ago, gaius said:

...it turn's out they might be effective after all.

Yes, when my girlfriend had to go into the pharmacy to pick up her prescriptions, I put a N95 mask on her.  She said she felt stupid as she was the only one with a mask on.  I told who cares what other people are doing, that we are taking extra precautions because of her underlying health issues.

Glad to know, I did the right thing by insisting she wear it in the pharmacy.

I've got three more N95 masks that only have some light wear from when I was polishing marble, does anyone know if I can re-use them??  Perhaps blow the marble dust out of them with my air compressor??

Please and thank you.

[gaius]

35 minutes ago, Happy Lemming said:

Yes, when my girlfriend had to go into the pharmacy to pick up her prescriptions, I put a N95 mask on her.  She said she felt stupid as she was the only one with a mask on.  I told who cares what other people are doing, that we are taking extra precautions because of her underlying health issues.

Glad to know, I did the right thing by insisting she wear it in the pharmacy.

I've got three more N95 masks that only have some light wear from when I was polishing marble, does anyone know if I can re-use them??  Perhaps blow the marble dust out of them with my air compressor??

Please and thank you.

I'd guess they're fine if there's no tearing or holes and can still form a tight seal around the face. Surgical masks don't block out as much as N95's and it seems like even they offer a level of protection for people who aren't sick. Anything is better than nothing.

I have one N95 for each member of my household but haven't been wearing mine yet due to masculine pride. It might be time.

[Libby1]

3 hours ago, gaius said:

Oh and by the way, all that stuff our "experts" have been saying about not bothering with face masks, how they're not effective, now that the "experts" sat down and actually thought about it for a while, it turn's out they might be effective after all. Even those regular surgical masks. Even more effective than washing your hands 10 times a day.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/experts-question-advice-against-face-mask-use-coronavirus.html

 

Yeah, I've been totally ignoring that "expert" advice about masks being ineffective.  I don't care how arrogant and superior a tone they adopt when they give it, and although I have a bit more concern about people smirking at me for wearing one in an area where it just isn't done, I will wear a mask anyway when I go to the supermarket.  The experts' primary concern is about ensuring that there are enough supplies of these items for health workers...but trying to con us into believing that we oughtn't wear them is a real dick move.  A lot of us have to look after vulnerable people who will become another problem for health workers if we fall sick.