cavedweller Posted August 28, 2010 Posted August 28, 2010 Does anyone here study the stock, mutual fund, futures, ETF markets? ie: The price of crude oil has been on a slide for two years.. Some of the factors for this are: electric cars coal generators solar power wind generators coal generators natural gas My question is where you you think the bootom will be for crude?
Author cavedweller Posted August 28, 2010 Author Posted August 28, 2010 Sorry, it is bottom not bootom..... oops.............
meerkat stew Posted August 29, 2010 Posted August 29, 2010 Sorry, I don't know. Do know 1) that the more efficient the market is, the more those macro, or long-term, supply and demand factors are already reflected in the price, and 2) most commodity prices are affected by micro market forces to at least the same extent that they are affected by macro factors. So, when investing in commodities, rather than trying to identify long term macro trends, the better strategy is to identify short-term pockets of inefficiency in the pricing mechanism due to micro factors and attempt to capture the pocket of inefficiency until the market moves back towards efficiency. For example, try to discern the hedging strategy of large, heavy oil consuming industries or institutional investors and buy into their periodic demand for contracts. Just an example, as this is also much easier said than done.
Author cavedweller Posted August 29, 2010 Author Posted August 29, 2010 Sorry that I was a pest...I did some research and found what I was looking for...Have a good day...
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