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I would say that an alcoholic within the first year of sobriety is more likely to have a relapse than someone with two, but it all depends on the individual. This person will only pick up a drink if they want to get drunk. If this person has been sober for some time, say two years, its probably safe to say that they want to stay sober, and this won't push them over the brink. However, I've seen people with many years of sobriety relapse for no apparent "reason". Just keep in mind that their are no reasons- only excuses- for a relapse, and if the person drinks over a break-up, an excuse is all it is. Just worry about yourself.
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