A Rough Estimate Of How Many Women You Need To Meet Before You Get A Girlfriend

[GuitarGuy7]

Dating is all a numbers game, and there are many variables that come into play. Now that I have passed intermediate algebra with a D-, I am now clearly an expert in statistical mathematics. So without further ado, I will now give you the statistical probably of meeting your next girlfriend every time you meet a new girl because I clearly have no life whatsoever.

 

Let's just say you meet a girl that you find attractive, there is about a 69.474% chance that she has a boyfriend according to my calculations.

 

And out of those 30.58% of women you meet who happen to be single, assuming you're average Joe, only around 11.321% would ever even consider dating you. The other 88.679% of women, you're simply not their type. If they like tall redheaded asian guys will full beards and you're a short scrawny white boy, you're out of luck pal.

 

 

 

But the hardest part is the social skills part, and this is where most guys mess up. You have about a 86.452% chance of talking yourself out of approaching the girl you like for fear of looking like a total doofus and saying the wrong things, and a 1.23% chance of actually ****ting your pants over the thought of actually talking to her. And that 13.548% chance that you actually do approach that cute girl, you have about a 46.456% chance of walking up to her and awkwardly saying hi and then standing there and saying absolutely nothing like a total doofus, which results in the girl 86.420% of the time thinking, "who is this weirdo?"

 

 

 

Okay so that 53.544% chance that you don't come off as an awkward doofus of the 13.548% chance that you actually do approach the girl, you only have about a 7.923% chance of not messing up and her actually being attracted to you enough to accept a date invitation.

 

 

 

Now you have a date congratulations! Tell your friends, tell your grandma, stand on the rooftops of a public building and shout to the whole world that you finally have a date. But not so fast! There's about a 34.217% chance that she will flake and won't even show up to the date. The most common reason for flaking is being too busy with far more important tasks such as Netflixing on the couch, comparing herself to other girls on Instagram, or laughing at hopeless chumps trying to hit her up on LinkedIn.

 

 

 

Assuming she shows up to the date, there's a good chance that things won't advance past the second date, 67.693% to be exact. 46% of the time, it's because she's talking to multiple guys and simply likes them more. 31% of the time, she will say "it's not you, it's me" and 23% of the time they are simply there for free food.

 

 

 

And that 32.307% chance that she puts up with you enough to stick around for the third date, about 82% of them, you will end up exclusively dating.

 

 

 

So if my math is correct, if you meet 10,000 girls, you should be able to date 46.328 of them. One of them will only be .328% female, but that's okay.

[d0nnivain]

I didn't read your math but once upon a time somebody taught me about the science behind mass mailers & cold calls. I think the conversion rate is less then 1/2 of a percent. (for every 100 points of contact you get 5 positive responses) I would assume hunting for a new SO has about the same ROI, or lower. So just keep putting yourself into situations where you can meet new people. You never know.

[outwithpeterpan]

I think people take the "numbers game" advice far too literally.

 

It's not that literally 1 in 100 women is interested, and you literally have to talk to 100 to mathematically find the 1 who is. It's that the process of finding people you vibe with, figuring out how to act or not act, developing socially, finding your scene... involves meeting people, talking to people, and generally participating in society. You need to get out there and play. Then you'll figure out things during the process.

[Woggle]

There is no math to it. You get a girlfriend when you meet a woman you want to be in a relationship with and she feels the same way.

[LuckyM]

I don't believe in this statistical theory. Makes no sense to me, intuitively.

 

Some people find their mate or LTR right away in high school or college, some never do, despite all their attempts, in real life.

 

Far too many variables, differing cultures, standards and people to generalize.

 

Of course, this method may work for individuals like the OP--. Meeting or talking to a certain percent of girls does not imply or assure anyone of success, eventually. This is not like dice or cards.

The accepted rule of induction in logic is that same past experiences repeated over time are more likely to bring the same results in the future. NO guarantees. Continuous failure brings more failure, not success.

[d0nnivain]

The reality is you only have to meet one -- the right one.

[mark clemson]

(If) ... you're a short scrawny white boy, you're out of luck pal.

 

You have about a 86.452% chance of talking yourself out of approaching the girl you like for fear of looking like a total doofus...

 

...about a 46.456% chance of walking up to her and awkwardly saying hi and then standing there and saying absolutely nothing like a total doofus, which results in the girl 86.420% of the time thinking, "who is this weirdo?"

 

You sound young. You can work on these things to improve your odds.

 

Be a handsome, well dressed, go-getting, socially fluent adult white male. Be someone who makes them want to come to you.

 

Easier said then done? Yes. Doable? Also yes.

[todreaminblue]

ahhh mathematics.....so clear cut precise and certain......unlike dating....

 

i feel overthinking kills dating...you just have to get out there....and do .....no equation...no certainty ...no statistics in your head to bring you down.....and be confident...as confident as you are solving sums and equations...

 

smilin......."0)....your post made me smile for its absolute ....mathematical nerdiness......some women love nerds for their brains doesnt matter about the suit that the brain is in.....dont know what the statistics are and it really doesnt matter.....i love nerd brains.....and im not the only women who does nor am i a rare breed......keep trekkin my friend..get out there ask away...and be confident....best wishes...deb

[RecentChange]

Ahhh the old let’s take something as complicated and nuanced as live and try to break it down to a mathematical equation.

 

I can tell ya as someone who has dated her share of STEM minded men.

 

It just doesn’t work like that. If you want to try to break down dating to mathematics, you need to study the social sciences - take a sociology based stats class and you will start to get an idea that there are just WAY TOO MANY variables to ever control for.

 

I know men who have dated an astonishing number of women, yet were never able to find much of a connection.

 

And men who are happily married to the first girl they ever really dated.

 

It’s not a numbers game really. Now if playing the numbers improves your social skills. If playing the numbers helps you realize what you want in a partner and thus focus your search on who you want to meet, than great.

 

But let’s say 1 in 100 women is the one for you. You don’t know if she will be #2 you meet or number #99.

[major_merrick]

RecentChange has a good answer, but I'll add mine also. It depends on you, your environment, the time of year, etc...

I have a husband. He's the only man I've ever dated, and we met when we were kids. So for me, the heterosexual answer was - one! I also have girlfriends, and I've had sex with hundreds (or maybe around a thousand?) different women. And I guarantee that I've met and made passes at more women than I've taken to bed. I didn't find my GF#1 until I was in my late 20's. So....my lesbian answer is 1,000 or 2,000 or more until I met the right ones.

 

Do you get a picture of how wildly the answer can vary, even in one person's life?

[GuitarGuy7]

RecentChange has a good answer, but I'll add mine also. It depends on you, your environment, the time of year, etc...

I have a husband. He's the only man I've ever dated, and we met when we were kids. So for me, the heterosexual answer was - one! I also have girlfriends, and I've had sex with hundreds (or maybe around a thousand?) different women. And I guarantee that I've met and made passes at more women than I've taken to bed. I didn't find my GF#1 until I was in my late 20's. So....my lesbian answer is 1,000 or 2,000 or more until I met the right ones.

 

Do you get a picture of how wildly the answer can vary, even in one person's life?

 

 

There are so many variables that come into play that can determine when you meet a dating or sex partner and the probability of it happening quickly or not quickly. Things such as:

 

- Your age

- Your gender

- How facially attractive you are

- How picky you are in finding a partner

- Your height

- Your overall body type

- Your age range and your desired age range

- Your social skills level

- What your societies physical ideal is

- Your personality

 

Generally speaking, dating is easier for people deemed attractive by their society, that should be pretty obvious. And the reason for that is simple, there's a higher percentage of people who find you attractive, so there's more opportunities to have a dating and sex life. If you're a hot 21 year old girl and 90% of straight men are attracted to you, then it's going to be a lot easier to find someone compared to if only 5% are attracted to you, it's simple math.

 

Thats why 20 something year old girls often monkeybranch around because they simply can. It's very common for your average hot girl in her twenties to have a plentora of boyfriends and be able to find someone new within 6 months if she breaks up with her current boyfriend. I'm not making this crap up, my sister was like this, my female cousins were like this, my mom was like this.

 

When you're a young pretty girl, dating is laughably easy, and the funny thing is that most of them don't even realize it until it's too late, until they've hit the wall and their looks start going downhill.

Edited May 16, 2019 by GuitarGuy7

[chillii]

Holy fk , that's just sad man. All those numbers and stats , jesus.

No pun intended and l know all the common talk is it's a numbers game but l don't think that at all , nothing like it in fact.

l think if numbers were to come into it then your not using your picker at all because people must be just wasting their time chasing unsuitable in the first place people.

Buttt, l suppose on the other hand everyones different and ya see it in around here some dated hundreds but eventually picked the right one.

Although even so, l'd say those 100s could've been narrowed down to 2 or 3 if they just chose right in the first place , the rest are just a waste of time.

 

No way you can be properly suited to 100s of people , most of us are lucky to be truly suited with one or two, 3.

 

 

So you can save yourself a whole lot of total bs , just biding time until you spot that one that is truly worthwhile and suited , believe me when you feel that you'll know. So if you want a real relationship , why would you even be bothering with anyone else.

[basil67]

When you're a young pretty girl, dating is laughably easy

 

Not if she is shy, picky, poor social skills, bad life choices, unemployable, single mother etc.....

 

I would also challenge that passing intermediate algebra and being an expert are a contradiction in terms.

Edited May 16, 2019 by basil67

[The Outlaw]

Translation, it's almost too much of a headache.

[chillii]

Well , numbers to that crazy degree anyway.

l think most of us can have 5 or 6 people out in the world we could be equally truly suited to long term.

But most of us will be very lucky if we meet one or two of them in our lifetime, but you know it when you meet them.

[outwithpeterpan]

It's definitely a math problem. It's just not solvable. Consider:

-Someone who meets me today, will have a different experience than someone who met me 1 year ago.

-Someone who meets me today, will be in the same place at the same time as me today, because of someone who met me 1 year ago.

 

The outcome of each interaction in your life, is a function of its own initial conditions alone. Small changes in those initial conditions mean a completely different outcome. And as the system evolves, from state to state, those little changes diverge the system away and away from other potential pathways.

 

This is why people can seem so predictable in a vacuum, yet life remains unpredictable.

[CautiouslyOptimistic]

Maybe change your goal from "getting a girlfriend" to "establishing a meaningful relationship." Then you won't be so obsessed with this numbers game and shift your focus to becoming the best version of yourself that someone would be glad to be in a relationship with (not just a "prize" for you accomplishing your goal of landing a GF).

[Foxhall]

OP,

 

 

buddy with a mind like that you should have no trouble finding a girlfriend,

my background is in accountancy and finance and I don't think I could come up with stats like that.

 

 

two things;

 

 

1- you have got to believe in yourself more, change your outlook to; yes you can befriend this girl, you can make her smile, you can hold a conversation.

 

 

2- If you get rejected WTF, why do you really care about what people think of you/ whether the girl will like you,

work on developing a thicker skin, not giving a **** as it were,

 

 

I changed my job in the last three years from working in an office to standing up in front of groups of people trying to teach a subject,

 

 

these people sussing me out waiting to pull me up on any mistake, looking to challenge me/ laugh at something I say/do wrong,

 

 

I nearly walked away so many times the first month,

the doubts creep in- Do I know enough, Am I good enough, Can I entertain them or are they just finding me very boring,

the hardest one of all Can I control the nerves,

 

 

what got me through it- "I do not care what these people think of me"

 

 

and I actually love the job now and much prefer it to working in an office,

 

 

In terms of meeting women, I know I will strike up a conversation now with a random girl I meet at an event, a random girl I meet on a train,

 

 

and 4/5 years ago I would have been too shy to do that,(well unless I had drink on me of course!!)

 

 

so get out there believe in yourself, feel the fear and do it anyway,

 

 

no one else will get you a girl, only yourself by pushing yourself.

Edited May 16, 2019 by Foxhall

[amaysngrace]

Is this your D paper? I’d of given you a C at least for saying doofus.

[Mysterio]

Here is a rundown of some friends and how they met that are still together to not together.

 

CH/DT. CF is DT ex Girlfriend in college. In Dec 2012 she friended him on Facebook. We all went to a Mardi Gra Social in Feb 2013. Thats where the date thing sparked off. They are together still with two bio kids between them. The Catch as it stands right now. CH is still technically married to her ex-husband and seems to not be able to get out of it. So DT has to wait until she is divorced to marry her. He is engaged and its been two yrs now.

 

SA/JB. Met in the last year of high school in 1988. Lived together from 1990 to 1997 had some kids in between that. Got married in 1997. Broke up in 2017. I guess they are separated going to divorce. SA just recently broke up with his new GF of 1.5 yrs. He met her 6 months after he and JB split up.

 

MO/MM worked together at a catalogue store. They were sort of pushed together at a wedding social. The reason is that a guy that MM's coworkers did not like was trying to hit on MM and the gang was not having that. They were a couple from 1991 to 1996 and married in 1996 and are still married without children.

 

JC/MK. Met through MK's female boss. JC was more the driving force of them being together as she was into him. MK was not really aware of that. They met in May of 1998 and married in 2000. Two kids. Still going strong.

 

BD/SC. Met online in Oct 2003. Married in Nov 2014. Two kids and then split up to divorce and no counselling in 2008. SC the woman. She did not want counselling.

 

These are just some of the people in my life. The Stats factor in somewhat. I don't know if there is some major formula to get a GF/BF.

 

I know for myself looking at my life at age 48. The only thing that I see is that when I make an effort to romantically connect with women. There is usually an obstacle standing in my way. If a woman wants me. The path to Mysterio is easier or I am way more easy to be with from my view of things.

[GuitarGuy7]

Well , numbers to that crazy degree anyway.

l think most of us can have 5 or 6 people out in the world we could be equally truly suited to long term.

But most of us will be very lucky if we meet one or two of them in our lifetime,

 

 

Well the chances of you finding one of these people while you two are still young and being able to date them is extremely rare, and it just comes down to getting very lucky.

 

Even finding them is rare, but finding them while you two are still young and both of you are single, and there just so happens to be mutual attraction is even more rare.

 

 

You're extremely lucky if you can pull it off though.

[preraph]

Before OLD, it was different, but you STILL met hundreds of people before finding one who mutually liked you back. Most people had crushes on cute people that never worked out, just like now, only in slightly fewer numbers. There was more socializing, but not one-on-one, just seeing people at school, on campus, at activities. Before OLD, it took an unusual circumstance sometimes to throw people together and get them to talking, like one I remember was being on a bus to a basketball game. The guy I was crushing on from afar and his friends were hassling me and my friends for the first time ever, just because we were there and they were there. That's why it's important to "be" somewhere frequently with other people.

 

I made good friends with a local band one day because I worked with one and then one day I was walking the neighborhood because my car was in the shop and the whole carload of them stopped since the one recognized me and we became like family for a long time, lot of years.

 

There's more opportunities when you're in school because there are more activities bringing people together. It does get harder without that

 

So as you get older, even with OLD, which by all accounts isn't good for a whole lot of people, you have to try extra hard to make face contact with groups of people. It's all about being in the right place at the right time, so you have to be out at a lot of places, swimming pool, music club, camping, games, concerts, church outings, work outings, any parties you can either give or get invited to. Help someone at Home Depot or learn to be a handyman and meet neighborhood people, one of whom may have a daughter. Just get out there.

[Gretchen12]

OP, very amusing writing. I don't think there is a dating crisis where most men and most women are not getting into relationships at all. If we do have such a crisis then we all need to be worried that there will be very few babies and people will just die off. I think we're ok. Average Joe is eventually getting together with plain Jane and having families. You just need to learn how other average men are succeeding, then the depressing numbers you gave will no longer apply to you.

[chillii]

Well the chances of you finding one of these people while you two are still young and being able to date them is extremely rare, and it just comes down to getting very lucky.

 

Even finding them is rare, but finding them while you two are still young and both of you are single, and there just so happens to be mutual attraction is even more rare.

 

 

You're extremely lucky if you can pull it off though.

 

 

 

 

Well , sorta rare , hell yeah. Sorta in the way that of course there aren't many for each of us.

But l dunno about these days , but most people use to grow up, meet someone somehow, and get married.

You know , out of 1000s of people l would've seen out there in life over the years, only a small percentage weren't married or married at some point.

So most people bumped into someone, somehow.

Maybe it's different now, maybe people aren't growing up and doing that anymore, dunno.

That'd be interesting to know.

 

As far as numbers , what l mean is yeah sure we might come across 100s and 100s of people in life, but you don't need to date them all , only the few you meet and find a mutual something with.

But yeah , l think anyone that has found love in life is very lucky.

[Mysterio]

I don't think that my friends that are married lucked out. They just work smart to keep their relationship together. Some people marry for a different reason. Life is dynamic.

 

If my Mother was shown her life with my Dad. I don't know if she would do it again. Or maybe she would jump out after yr 10. They are still together yr 50.

 

I can feel Guitar Guy's frustration, but I don't think its without merit. I think in my parents day. People getting together was way easier. My dad got my mom in a year. Or my Mother was easy about my father getting her.

 

I think we live in a world where we think that we are supposed to get everything all at once, instead of building a relationship day by day. People dismiss people all the time with ease. It's an easier coping mechanism.

 

I think we all should slow down a bit and see what someone has to offer. Even if its just an initial going out. Its not like Sex and commitment are on the table at that point from day 1 of dating.